| Chaeshin Chu | 67 Articles |
Objectives
The study aimed to analyze the core capacities to implement World Health Organization International Health Regulations (IHR) in 6 countries: Indonesia, Cambodia, Vietnam, the Dominican Republic, Ghana, and the Republic of Korea. Methods: Secondary data from relevant databases and reports, including the electronic State Party Self-Assessment Annual Reporting mechanism and global health security index, were used to assess health security in these countries. Descriptive statistics summarized the basic features of the scores, and a strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats (SWOT) analysis was subsequently performed to identify factors affecting health security scores while highlighting key similarities and differences between countries. Results: Early warning and event management emerged as the primary strength in most countries. Common opportunities included international commitments and immunization programs. In contrast, many countries shared weaknesses related to the policy, legal, and normative frameworks for IHR implementation, as well as challenges in human resources, chemical event management, and radiation emergency preparedness. Recurring threats involved issues such as biosafety, biosecurity, dual-use research and the culture of responsible science, infection control practices, coordination between public health and security authorities, laboratory supply chain vulnerabilities, and communication with healthcare workers during public health emergencies. Conclusion: In order to counter future global health threats, countries should prioritize enhancing surveillance capacity (early warning and event management) as well as the immunization indicator (vaccination rates for human and animal diseases, including the national vaccine delivery system). Citations
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Global health security threats in the post-coronavirus disease 2019 era include dense urban populations, increased human–animal proximity, migration driven by political or economic instability, climate change, humanitarian crises, antimicrobial resistance (AMR), and the misuse of biological research—including the accidental or intentional release of high-risk pathogens. The foundational preparation for these threats is to establish a robust, resilient public health system based on universal health coverage. The World Health Organization’s International Health Regulations must continue to promote global solidarity by maintaining core capacities such as surveillance, national laboratories, and epidemiological investigations of emerging infectious diseases, with timely reporting and information sharing within the global health security community. A One Health approach is essential for addressing AMR. Infection prevention and control must be enhanced to reduce healthcare-associated infections in medical facilities. Additionally, regulations concerning biosafety and biosecurity should address dual-use research of concern as well as the accidental or intentional release of highrisk pathogens from laboratories. Global health security is a collective responsibility because these threats know no borders and require coordinated action.
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<title>Objectives</title>
<p>This study aims to evaluate the risk assessments of coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) in the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC), from the point of detection to the provision of basic information to the relevant public health authorities.</p></sec>
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<title>Methods</title>
<p>To estimate the overall risk of specific public health events, probability, and impact at the country-level were evaluated using available information. To determine the probability of particular public health events, the risk of importation and risk of transmission were taken into consideration. KCDC used 5 levels (“very low,” “low,” “moderate,” “high,” and “very high”) for each category and overall risk was eventually decided.</p></sec>
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<title>Results</title>
<p>A total of 8 risk assessments were performed on 8 separate occasions between January 8<sup>th</sup> to February 28<sup>th</sup>, 2020, depending on the detection and report of COVID-19 cases in other countries. The overall risk of the situation in each assessment increased in severity over this period: “low” (first), “moderate” (second), “high” (third), “high” (fourth), “high” (fifth), “high” (sixth), “high” (seventh), and “very high” (eighth).</p></sec>
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<title>Conclusion</title>
<p>The KCDC’s 8 risk assessments were utilized to activate national emergency response mechanisms and eventually prepare for the pandemic to ensure the containment and mitigation of COVID-19 with non-pharmaceutical public health measures.</p></sec>
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<title>Objectives</title>
<p>To estimate the number and risk of imported infections resulting from people visiting Asian and Latin American countries.</p></sec>
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<title>Methods</title>
<p>The dataset of visitors to 5 Asian countries with dengue were analyzed for 2016 and 2017, and in the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam, imported cases of zika virus infection were also reported. For zika virus, a single imported case was reported from Brazil in 2016, and 2 imported cases reported from the Maldives in 2017. To understand the transmissibility in 5 Southeast Asian countries, the estimate of the force of infection, i.e., the hazard of infection per year and the average duration of travel has been extracted. Outbound travel numbers were retrieved from the World Tourism Organization, including business travelers.</p></sec>
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<title>Results</title>
<p>The incidence of imported dengue in 2016 was estimated at 7.46, 15.00, 2.14, 4.73 and 2.40 per 100,000 travelers visiting Philippines, Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia and Vietnam, respectively. Similarly, 2.55, 1.65, 1.53, 1.86 and 1.70 per 100,000 travelers in 2017, respectively. It was estimated that there were 60.1 infections (range: from 16.8 to 150.7 infections) with zika virus in Brazil, 2016, and 345.6 infections (range: from 85.4 to 425.5 infections) with zika virus in the Maldives, 2017.</p></sec>
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<title>Conclusion</title>
<p>This study emphasizes that dengue and zika virus infections are mild in their nature, and a substantial number of infections may go undetected. An appropriate risk assessment of zika virus infection must use the estimated total size of infections.</p></sec>
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Objectives
The outbreak of Middle Eastern respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) was one of the major events in South Korea in 2015. In particular, this study pays attention to formulating a mathematical model for MERS transmission dynamics and estimating transmission rates. Methods Incidence data of MERS-CoV from the government authority was analyzed for the first aim and a mathematical model was built and analyzed for the second aim of the study. A mathematical model for MERS-CoV transmission dynamics is used to estimate the transmission rates in two periods due to the implementation of intensive interventions. Results Using the estimates of the transmission rates, the basic reproduction number was estimated in two periods. Due to the superspreader, the basic reproduction number was very large in the first period; however, the basic reproduction number of the second period has reduced significantly after intensive interventions. Conclusion It turned out to be the intensive isolation and quarantine interventions that were the most critical factors that prevented the spread of the MERS outbreak. The results are expected to be useful to devise more efficient intervention strategies in the future. Citations
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This study was intended to analyze the characteristics of infrequent and frequent outpatients visiting Korean medical facilities, and find the related variables of frequent users. Methods The data source was the Report on the Usage and Consumption of Korean Medicine (2011) published by the Ministry of Health and Welfare and Korea Institute for Health and Social Affairs. We analyzed outpatient data using SAS 9.2. Results As much as 46.6% of the patients used Korean medical services over 11 times in 3 months. The proportion of frequent users increased depending on age, and their proportion was high in the low-income and low-education group. People with musculoskeletal disease, stroke, hypertension, and obesity were more likely to use Korean medical services. In general, patients were satisfied with their treatment, with frequent outpatients being more satisfied than infrequent outpatients. In logistic regression analysis, age and musculoskeletal disease were significant determinants of frequency of use of Korean medical services. Conclusion Age, musculoskeletal disease, and specific diseases were highly associated with frequent Korean medical utilization. Citations
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Objectives
We characterized and assessed public health measures, including intensive vaccination and antiviral treatment, implemented during the 2009 influenza pandemic in the Republic of Korea. Methods A mathematical model for the 2009 influenza pandemic is formulated. The transmission rate, the vaccination rate, the antiviral treatment rate, and the hospitalized rate are estimated using the least-squares method for the 2009 data of the incidence curves of the infected, vaccinated, treated, and hospitalized. Results The cumulative number of infected cases has reduced significantly following the implementation of the intensive vaccination and antiviral treatment. In particular, the intensive vaccination was the most critical factor that prevented severe outbreak. Conclusion We have found that the total infected proportion would increase by approximately six times under the half of vaccination rates. Citations
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Objectives
The Republic of Korea reports approximately 35,000 new tuberculosis (TB) patients each year, and the number of HIV-infected individuals is steadily increasing. Public health centers (PHCs) conduct TB diagnosis and treatment for risk groups in communities. This study aimed to identify possible trends and characteristics of HIV infection among suspected TB cases in PHCs. Methods Study subjects were suspected TB cases in PHCs who agreed to be tested for HIV from 2001 to 2013. Trends in HIV seroprevalence were assessed through a series of annual cross-sectional analyses. We analyzed suspected TB cases, and HIV-infected individuals among suspected TB cases, by gender, age, nationality, and region. Results The number of suspected tuberculosis cases who took an HIV test in PHCs was approximately 6,000 each year from 2001 to 2013. Among the suspected TB cases who took an HIV test, the number of those aged 20–39 is gradually decreasing, while the number of those aged 50–69 is increasing. During this period, 32 HIV-infected individuals were identified; the majority were men (94%), aged 30–49 (68%), Korean (94%), and residents in a metropolitan area (53%). HIV seroprevalence decreased from 8.2 per 10,000 persons in 2001 to 1.9 per 10,000 persons in 2013. Conclusion This study has identified trends and characteristics of HIV infection among suspected tuberculosis cases in PHCs. This national data provides a basis for public health policy for HIV and tuberculosis infections. Citations
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Objectives
The aim of this study was to identify how the drinking patterns of a generation on the paternal side affect those of the next generations by estimating the number of high-risk drinkers by generation according to the Alcohol Use Disorder Identification Test. Methods Data were selected from the 2009 Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey conducted by the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and were analyzed using SPSS 18.0. Results Later generations started drinking earlier (62.4%, 71.8% and 91.1%, respectively). The majority of the second generation consumed more than 2–4 drinks a month (83.7%), but only a small proportion experienced difficulty in everyday life (9.6%), felt repentance (9.6%), or experienced memory loss (17.9%) after drinking. Unmarried third-generation adults with high-risk-drinking fathers reported more frequent alcohol consumption [odds ratio (OR) 1.441), greater amounts on one occasion (>7 cups for men, OR 1.661; > 5 cups for women, OR 2.078), temperance failure (OR 2.377), and repentance after drinking (OR 1.577). Unmarried third-generation adults with high-risk-drinking grandfathers consumed greater amounts of alcohol on one occasion (OR 3.642), and unmarried third-generation women more frequently consumed large amounts of alcohol (>5 cups, OR 4.091). Unmarried third-generation adults with high-risk-drinking fathers were more likely to exhibit high-risk drinking patterns (OR 1.608). Second-generation individuals from a high-risk-drinking first generation were more likely to engage in high-risk drinking (OR 3.705). Conclusion High-risk drinking by a generation significantly affects the high-risk drinking patterns of subsequent generations. Citations
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From the introduction of HIV into the Republic of Korea in 1985 through 2012, 9,410 HIV-infected Koreans have been identified. Since 2000, there has been a sharp increase in newly diagnosed HIV-infected Koreans. It is necessary to estimate the changes in HIV infection to plan budgets and to modify HIV/AIDS prevention policy. We constructed autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models to forecast the number of HIV infections from 2013 to 2017. Methods HIV infection data from 1985 to 2012 were used to fit ARIMA models. Akaike Information Criterion and Schwartz Bayesian Criterion statistics were used to evaluate the constructed models. Estimation was via the maximum likelihood method. To assess the validity of the proposed models, the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) between the number of observed and fitted HIV infections from 1985 to 2012 was calculated. Finally, the fitted ARIMA models were used to forecast the number of HIV infections from 2013 to 2017. Results The fitted number of HIV infections was calculated by optimum ARIMA (2,2,1) model from 1985–2012. The fitted number was similar to the observed number of HIV infections, with a MAPE of 13.7%. The forecasted number of new HIV infections in 2013 was 962 (95% confidence interval (CI): 889–1,036) and in 2017 was 1,111 (95% CI: 805–1,418). The forecasted cumulative number of HIV infections in 2013 was 10,372 (95% CI: 10,308–10,437) and in 2017 was14,724 (95% CI: 13,893–15,555) by ARIMA (1,2,3). Conclusion Based on the forecast of the number of newly diagnosed HIV infections and the current cumulative number of HIV infections, the cumulative number of HIV-infected Koreans in 2017 would reach about 15,000. Citations
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The Republic of Korea (ROK) and the the United States of America (USA) has held joint exercises to respond to biothreats in the Korean Peninsula since 2011. The exercise was called Able Response (AR) and it aims to coordinate interministerial procedures inside Korea and international procedures in requesting the medical resources urgently between ROK and USA, and among ROK and the United Nations, and nongovernmental organizations. AR13 was a functional exercise with a scenario that presumed a series of attack by terrorists, dispersing <i>Bacillus anthracis</i> in Seoul. The participants conducted exercises with action cells and using point-to-point communication system. It was followed by Senior Leadership Seminar participated by high-ranking officials in ROK and USA to discuss possible collaboration in advance. AR and its following actions will fortify collaboration between ROK and USA and enhance the capability of countermeasures against biothreats in Korea.
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Since the 2006 Pandemic Influenza Preparedness and Response Plan according to the World Health Organization’s recommendation, the Republic of Korea has prepared and periodically evaluated the plan to respond to various public health crises including pandemic influenza. Korea has stockpiled 13,000,000 doses of antiviral drugs covering 26% of the Korean population and runs 519 isolated beds in 16 medical institutions. The division of public health crisis response in Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention are in charge of responding to public health crises caused by emerging infectious diseases including severe acute respiratory syndrome, avian influenza human infection, and pandemic influenza. Its job description includes preparing for emerging infectious diseases, securing medical resources during a crisis, activating the emergency response during the crisis, and fortification of capabilities of public health personnel. It could evolve into a comprehensive national agency to deal with public health crisis based on the experience of previous national emerging infectious diseases.
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Korea has adopted Epidemic Intelligence Service (EIS) officers through the Field Epidemiology Training Program (FETP) since 1999 for systematic control of emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases. Graduates of medical schools in Korea are selected and serve as public health doctors (PHDs) for their mandatory military service. The duration of service is 3 years and PHDs comprise general practitioners and specialists. Some PHDs are selected as EIS officers with 3 weeks basic FETP training and work for central and provincial public health authorities to conduct epidemiological investigations. The total number of EIS officers is 31 as of 2012. The Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC) has 12 specialists, whereas specialists and each province has one or two EIS officers to administer local epidemiological investigations in 253 public health centers. The Korean EIS officers have successfully responded and prevented infectious diseases, but there is a unique limitation: the number of PHDs in Korea is decreasing and PHDs are not allowed to stay outside Korea, which makes it difficult to cope with overseas infectious diseases. Furthermore, after 3 years service, they quit and their experiences are not accumulated. KCDC has hired full-time EIS officers since 2012 to overcome this limitation.
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Objectives
In December 2010, there was an outbreak of acute febrile respiratory disease in many Korean military camps that were not geographically related. A laboratory analysis confirmed a number of these cases to be infected by the pandemic influenza A(H1N1) 2009 (H1N1pdm09) virus. Because mass vaccination against H1N1pdm09 was implemented at the infected military camps eleven months ago, the outbreak areas in which both vaccinated and nonvaccinated individuals were well mixed, gave us an opportunity to evaluate the effectiveness of H1N1pdm09 vaccine through a retrospective cohort study design. Methods A self-administered questionnaire was distributed to the three military camps in which the outbreak occurred for case detection, determination of vaccination status, and characterization of other risk factors. The overall response rate was 86.8% (395/455). Case was defined as fever (≥38 °C) with cough or sore throat, influenza-like illness (ILI), and vaccination status verified by vaccination registry. Crude vaccine effectiveness (VE) was calculated as “1 − attack rate in vaccinated individuals/attack rate in nonvaccinated individuals”, and adjusted VE was calculated as “1 – odds ratio” using logistic regression adjusted for potential confounding factor. A number of ILI definitions were used to test the robustness of the result. Results The attack rate of ILI was 12.8% in register-verified vaccinated individuals and 24.0% in nonvaccinated individuals. The crude VE was thus calculated to be 46.8% [95% confidence interval (CI): 14.5–66.9]. The adjusted VE rate was 46.8% (95% CI: –9.4 to 74.1). Various combinations of ILI symptoms also showed similar VE rates. Conclusion We evaluated the effectiveness of H1N1pdm09 vaccine in the 2010–2011 season in an outbreak setting. Although the result was not sensitive to any analytical method used and ILI case definition, the magnitude of effectiveness was lower than estimated in the 2009–2010 season. Citations
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A hierarchical generalized linear model (HGLM) was applied to estimate the transmission pattern of scrub typhus from 2001 to 2011 in the Republic of Korea, based on spatial and temporal correlation. Methods Based on the descriptive statistics of scrub typhus incidence from 2001 to 2011 reported to the Korean Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the spatial and temporal correlations were estimated by HGLM. Incidences according to age, sex, and year were also estimated by the best-fit model out of nine HGLMs. A disease map was drawn to view the annual regional spread of the disease. Results The total number of scrub typhus cases reported from 2001 to 2011 was 51,136: male, 18,628 (36.4%); female, 32,508 (63.6%). The best-fit model selected was a combination of the spatial model (Markov random-field model) and temporal model (first order autoregressive model) of scrub typhus transmission. The peak incidence was 28.80 per 100,000 persons in early October and the peak incidence was 40.17 per 100,000 persons in those aged 63.3 years old by the best-fit HGLM. The disease map showed the spread of disease from the southern central area to a nationwide area, excepting Gangwon-do (province), Gyeongsangbuk-do (province), and Seoul. Conclusion In the transmission of scrub typhus in Korea, there was a correlation to the incidence of adjacent areas, as well as that of the previous year. According to the disease map, we are unlikely to see any decrease in the incidence in the near future, unless ongoing aggressive measures to prevent the exposure to the vector, chigger mites, in rural areas, are put into place. Citations
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This study analyzes the spatial distribution of scrub typhus in Korea. Methods A spatial distribution of <i>Orientia tsutsugamushi</i> occurrence using a geographic information system (GIS) is presented, and analyzed by means of spatial clustering and correlations. Results The provinces of Gangwon-do and Gyeongsangbuk-do show a low incidence throughout the year. Some districts have almost identical environmental conditions of scrub typhus incidence. The land use change of districts does not directly affect the incidence rate. Conclusion GIS analysis shows the spatial characteristics of scrub typhus. This research can be used to construct a spatial-temporal model to understand the epidemic tsutsugamushi. Citations
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The spatial and temporal correlations were estimated to determine <i>Plasmodium vivax</i> malarial transmission pattern in Korea from 2001–2011 with the hierarchical generalized linear model. Methods Malaria cases reported to the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention from 2001 to 2011 were analyzed with descriptive statistics and the incidence was estimated according to age, sex, and year by the hierarchical generalized linear model. Spatial and temporal correlation was estimated and the best model was selected from nine models. Results were presented as diseases map according to age and sex. Results The incidence according to age was highest in the 20–25-year-old group (244.52 infections/100,000). Mean ages of infected males and females were 31.0 years and 45.3 years with incidences 7.8 infections/100,000 and 7.1 infections/100,000 after estimation. The mean month for infection was mid-July with incidence 10.4 infections/100,000. The best-fit model showed that there was a spatial and temporal correlation in the malarial transmission. Incidence was very low or negligible in areas distant from the demilitarized zone between Republic of Korea and Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (North Korea) if the 20–29-year-old male group was omitted in the diseases map. Conclusion Malarial transmission in a region in Korea was influenced by the incidence in adjacent regions in recent years. Since malaria in Korea mainly originates from mosquitoes from North Korea, there will be continuous decrease if there is no further outbreak in North Korea. Citations
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On April 26, 2012, the Korea National Institute of Health officially held the opening ceremony of newly dedicated biobank building, ‘National Biobank of Korea’. The stocked biospecimens and related information have been distributed for medical and public health researches. The Korea Biobank Project, which was initiated in 2008, constructed the Korea Biobank Network consisting of the National Biobank of Korea (NBK) with 17 regional biobanks in Korea. As of December 2011, a total of 525,416 biospecimens with related information have been secured: 325,952 biospecimens from the general population obtained through cohort studies and 199,464 biospecimens of patients from regional biobanks. A large scale genomic study, Korea Association Resource (KARE) and many researches utilized the biospecimens secured through Korea Genome Epidemiology Study (KoGES) and Korea Biobank Project (KBP). Construction of ‘National Biobank of Korea’, a dedicated biobank building at Osong means that NBK can manage and check quality of the biospecimens with promising distribution of 26 million vials of biospecimen, which provide the infrastructure for the development of health technology in Korea. The NBK and the National Library of Medicine (to be constructed in 2014) will play a central role in future biomedical research in Korea.
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Until the early 2000s, lymphatic filariasis would commonly break out in the coastal areas in Korea. Through steady efforts combining investigation and treatment, filariasis was officially declared eradicated in 2008. This study surveyed the density of vector species of filariasis in past endemic areas, and inspected filariasis DNA from collected mosquitoes for protection against the reemergence of filariasis. Methods Between May and October 2009, mosquitoes were caught using the black night trap in past endemic coastal areas: Gyeongsangnam-do, Jeollanamdo, and Jeju-do. The collected mosquitoes were identified, and the extracted DNA from the collected vector mosquitoes was tested by polymerase chain reaction for <i>Brugia malayi</i> filariasis. Results <i>Ochletotatus togoi, Anophel es (Hyrcanus)</i> group and <i>Culex pipiens</i> were most frequently caught in Jeollanam-do (Geomun Island, Bogil Island, Heuksan Island), Jeju-do (Namone-ri, Wimi-ri). and Gyeongsangnam-do (Maemul Island). DNA of <i>B malayi</i> was not found in <i>Och Togoi</i> and <i>An (Hyrcanus)</i> group as main vectors of filariasis. Conclusion Lymphatic filariasis was not found in the vector mosquitoes collected in past endemic areas. However, considering that the proportion of vector species is quite high, there is a potential risk that filariasis could be reemerging through overseas travel or trade. Thus, there is a need to continuously monitor vector mosquitoes of lymphatic filariasis. Citations
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Objective
To investigate the optimal control strategy for Plasmodium vivax malaria transmission in Korea. Methods A <i>Plasmodium vivax</i> malaria transmission model with optimal control terms using a deterministic system of differential equations is presented, and analyzed mathematically and numerically. Results If the cost of reducing the reproduction rate of the mosquito population is more than that of prevention measures to minimize mosquito-human contacts, the control of mosquito-human contacts needs to be taken for a longer time, comparing the other situations. More knowledge about the actual effectiveness and costs of control intervention measures would give more realistic control strategies. Conclusion Mathematical model and numerical simulations suggest that the use of mosquito-reduction strategies is more effective than personal protection in some cases but not always. Citations
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Our aim was to evaluate Korea’s Pandemic Influenza Preparedness Plan. Methods We conducted a sensitivity analysis on the expected number of outpatients and hospital bed occupancy, with 1,000,000 parameter combinations, in a situation of pandemic influenza, using the mathematical simulation program InfluSim. Results Given the available resources in Korea, antiviral treatment and social distancing must be combined to reduce the number of outpatients and hospitalizations sufficiently; any single intervention is not enough. The antiviral stockpile of 4–6% is sufficient for the expected eligible number of cases to be treated. However, the eligible number assumed (30% for severe cases and 26% for extremely severe cases) is very low compared to the corresponding number in European countries, where up to 90% of the population are assumed to be eligible for antiviral treatment. Conclusions A combination of antiviral treatment and social distancing can mitigate a pandemic, but will only bring it under control for the most optimistic parameter combinations. Citations
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The incidence of anal disease is higher among persons with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection than among the general population. We surveyed the status of seroprevalence in colorectal hospitals in Korea. Methods The survey was conducted in colorectal hospitals in Korea from November to December 2008. The questionnaire was comprised of six topics about the status of HIV testing in colorectal hospitals. We gathered the data by website (<ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="http://hivqa.nih.go.kr/risk">http://hivqa.nih.go.kr/risk</ext-link>) or fax. Results Among 774 colorectal hospitals contacted, 109 (14%) hospitals participated in the survey. Among these, 48 hospitals (44%) performed HIV tests in their own hospitals and 11 (23%) took HIV testing by rapid method. The main reason for recommending an HIV test was surgical operation (54%) followed by endoscope (11%) and health checkup (9%). The annual number of HIV tests increased from 58,647 (at 21 hospitals) in 2002 to 246,709 (at 58 hospitals) in 2007. HIV seroprevalence was >3.0 per 10,000 individuals during 2002–2005, decreased to 2.2 per 10,000 individuals in 2006 and rose to 2.8 per 10,000 individuals in 2007. Conclusions HIV seroprevalence of colorectal hospitals was more than twice that of general hospitals in Korea. HIV surveillance systems based on colorectal hospitals for HIV/AIDS transmission prevention by early HIV diagnosis are needed. Citations
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To analyze the incidence of obesity in adults aged 19–59 years in Korea and predict its trend in the future. Methods We considered a two-compartmental deterministic mathematical model Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS), a system of difference equations, to predict the evolution of obesity in the population and to propose strategies to reduce its incidence. Results The prevention strategy on normal-weight individuals produced a greater improvement than that produced by treatment strategies. Conclusions Mathematical model sensitivity analysis suggests that obesity prevention strategies are more effective than obesity treatment strategies in controlling the increase of adult obesity in Korea. Citations
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Recent genetic association studies have provided convincing evidence that several novel loci and single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) are associated with the risk of developing type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). The aims of this study were: 1) to develop a predictive model of T2DM using genetic and clinical data; and 2) to compare misclassification rates of different models. Methods We selected 212 individuals with newly diagnosed T2DM and 472 controls aged in their 60s from the Korean Genome and Epidemiology Study. A total of 499 known SNPs from 87 T2DM-related genes were genotyped using germline DNA. SNPs were analyzed for significant association with T2DM using various classification algorithms including Quest (Quick, Unbiased, Efficient, Statistical tree), Support Vector Machine, C4.5, logistic regression, and K-nearest neighbor. Results We tested these models using the complete Korean Genome and Epidemiology Study cohort (<i>n</i> = 10,038) and computed the T2DM misclassification rates for each model. Average misclassification rates ranged at 28.2–52.7%. The misclassification rates for the logistic and machine-learning algorithms were lower than the statistical tree algorithms. Using 1-to-1 matched data, the misclassification rate of the statistical tree QUEST algorithm using body mass index and SNP variables was the lowest, but overall the logistic regression performed best. Conclusions The K-nearest neighbor method exhibited more robust results than other algorithms. For clinical and genetic data, our “multistage adjustment” model outperformed other models in yielding lower rates of misclassification. To improve the performance of these models, further studies using warranted, strategies to estimate better classifiers for the quantification of SNPs need to be developed. Citations
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The purpose of this study was to investigate the seroprevalence of hepatitis A virus (HAV) and hepatitis E virus (HEV) in Korea during 2005. Methods Study subjects were selected from across Korea using a stratified multistage probability sampling design, and HAV and HEV seroprevalence was compared on the basis of sex, age, and residency. A total of 497 rural and urban people aged 10–99 years of age (mean ± SD age = 28.87 ± 17.63 years) were selected by two-stage cluster sampling and tested serologically for anti-HAV and anti-HEV IgG using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Results Among this population, the overall seroprevalence of HAV was 63.80% (55.21% aged in their 20s and 95.92% in their 30s, <i>p</i> < 0.01) and that of HEV was 9.40% (5.21% aged in their 20s and 7.14% in their 30s, <i>p</i> < 0.01). Seroprevalence also varied according to area of residence. HEV prevalence in rural areas was higher than that of urban regions based on the anti-HEV antibody, odds ratio 3.22 (95% confidence interval: 1.46–7.10, <i>p</i> < 0.01). There were no significant differences between male and female against anti-HAV/HEV antibodies. Conclusion Our study suggested that the seropositive rates of HAV and HEV might be related to age and environmental conditions. Citations
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To investigate the possible link between <i>Vibrio vulnificus</i> population size in seawater and water temperature. Methods We collected incidence and water temperature data in coastal regions of Korea and constructed a mathematical model that consisted of three classes; susceptible fish, infected fish available to humans, and infected humans. Results We developed a mathematical model to connect <i>V. vulnificus</i> incidence with water temperature using estimated bacterial population sizes and actual coastal water temperatures. Conclusion Increased <i>V. vulnificus</i> population sizes in marine environments may increase the risk of infection in people who eat at coastal restaurants in Korea. Furthermore, we estimated the near-future number of infected patients using our model, which will help to establish a public-health policy to reduce the disease burden. Citations
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