Objectives This study investigated a large-scale foodborne outbreak caused by Staphylococcus aureus during a local festival in the Republic of Korea and performed genomic and molecular epidemiological analyses using whole-genome sequencing (WGS).
Methods Microbiological identification was performed using clinical, food, and environmental samples. Molecular characterization included pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE), multilocus sequence typing, and spa typing. WGS was conducted to evaluate clonal relatedness, virulence factors, and antimicrobial resistance genes.
Results A total of 141 suspected cases and 18 laboratory-confirmed cases were identified, and 24 S. aureus isolates were recovered (18 from patients, 3 from food samples, and 3 from environmental samples). All 17 isolates included in the genomic analysis carried the sea and sec genes and belonged to ST1-t321, with pairwise differences of 8–33 SNPs, supporting a clonal origin. These isolates exhibited a previously unreported PFGE pattern (STAS16.170) in the Republic of Korea. Virulence profiling identified hemolysin genes (hlgA, hlgB, hlgC), leukocidin genes (lukD, lukE), and immune evasion genes (sak, scn). In addition, all isolates were methicillin-susceptible and lacked mecA and mecC.
Conclusion This large-scale foodborne outbreak demonstrated that a single contaminated food source can result in widespread illness during mass gatherings. Genomic analysis clarified the clonal relatedness of the outbreak strains and highlighted the value of genomic surveillance for the early detection and prevention of S. aureus outbreaks.
Objectives Kudoa septempunctata is a marine myxosporean parasite implicated in seafood-borne acute gastroenteritis, predominantly associated with the consumption of raw olive flounder. This study aimed to characterize the molecular and genetic features of K. septempunctata-associated with foodborne outbreaks in the Republic of Korea from 2016 to 2024. Methods: We reviewed 415 suspected foodborne outbreaks reported through national surveillance between 2016 and 2024. Among these, 37 outbreaks with complete clinical, epidemiological, and laboratory data from 2020 to 2024—including K. septempunctata testing and genotyping—were analyzed in detail. Results: Diarrhea (88.8%) and vomiting (61.2%) were the most common symptoms. The detection rate of K. septempunctata was significantly higher in specimens collected ≤24 hours after raw fish consumption (69.8%) than in those collected > 24 hours after consumption (35.9%). Outbreak occurrence was higher during warmer months (May–October) than during other periods, although this difference was not statistically significant. All sequences obtained from patient specimens belonged to sequence type 3 (ST3) of K. septempunctata. Conclusion: Since 2020, the proportion of reported outbreaks associated with Kudoa has increased, indicating its continued public health relevance. The timing of specimen collection is a key determinant of K. septempunctata detection, as diagnostic yield declines significantly when specimens are collected more than 24 hours after exposure. These findings highlight the need for standardized rapid investigation protocols and an integrated surveillance system linking clinical data with seafood supply-chain information.
Da Seul Kim, Soon-Young Seo, Dong Hwi Kim, Yeon Hee Woo, Deborah Lee, Se Jeong Yang, Junyoung Kim, Eunkyung Shin, Byungsun Jung, Eunmi Lee, Min Jung Lee, Young-Joon Park
Osong Public Health Res Perspect 2026;17(1):61-71. Published online February 10, 2026
Objectives In May 2025, clusters of salmonellosis were identified in 7 cities in the Republic of Korea, all associated with consumption of identical bakery products. This investigation aimed to characterize the outbreak, identify potential contributing factors, and inform strategies for preventing similar multi-facility foodborne outbreaks. Methods: A case series study was conducted among individuals who consumed Manufacturer H’s Product I and Product II on May 15–16, 2025 at 7 facilities (n= 1,235). Clinical specimens from symptomatic individuals, retained food samples, and environmental samples were collected and tested. Food-exposure histories were assessed, and active case finding was implemented across all supplied facilities. Traceback investigations were conducted at the manufacturer, distributor, and egg farms. Human and food isolates underwent pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) and whole-genome sequencing (WGS). Results: A total of 323 cases met the outbreak case definition (attack rate, 26.2%), of which 48 were laboratory-confirmed. Salmonella Enteritidis was isolated from both clinical specimens and retained bakery products. PFGE patterns were indistinguishable between human and food isolates, and WGS demonstrated high genetic relatedness. These findings confirmed a common-source outbreak linked to the implicated bakery products. Conclusion: This outbreak underscores the value of integrating epidemiological investigation, active case finding, and molecular typing to identify common food vehicles in outbreaks involving widely distributed manufactured foods. Coordinated collaboration between public health and food safety authorities is essential for the effective detection, response, and prevention of multi-facility foodborne outbreaks.
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Objectives Subacute sclerosing panencephalitis (SSPE) is a rare but fatal neurodegenerative disease caused by persistent measles virus infection. After a significant measles outbreak in 2000–2001, the Republic of Korea implemented a nationwide measles elimination program, which led to a dramatic reduction in measles incidence. This study aimed to evaluate the impact of these measles elimination efforts on the incidence of SSPE in the Republic of Korea.
Methods This nationwide, population-based retrospective cohort study identified patients newly diagnosed with measles and SSPE between 2007 and 2022, registered in the Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service (HIRA) and Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency (KDCA) databases. Population-based incidence rates of measles and SSPE were calculated and compared annually.
Results A total of 236 measles cases (HIRA data) and 1,168 measles cases (KDCA data), along with 2,736 SSPE cases, were diagnosed during the study period. Measles incidence significantly declined, reaching zero cases in 2021, while SSPE incidence displayed an upward trend, peaking in 2014. The mean age at SSPE onset was 21.2 years, with a marked male-to-female ratio of 13.0:1.
Conclusion SSPE incidence was remarkably low in the post-outbreak period, likely attributable to successful measles control. This study underscores the critical importance of maintaining low measles incidence through sustained vaccination efforts, preventing SSPE and other measles-related complications.
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Objectives No study has yet analyzed risk factors to determine whether students with confirmed coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infections may affect students at neighboring schools. Therefore, this study aimed to determine risk factors for COVID-19 transmission among schools within a community in the Republic of Korea.
Methods An epidemiological investigation was conducted among 696 students and school staff members at 3 schools where COVID-19 clusters began on October 15, 2021. Interviews, visit history surveys, a facility risk assessment, and closed-circuit television were used to identify risk factors. The statistical significance of risk factors was also evaluated.
Results We confirmed 129 cases (18.5%) among the individuals exposed to COVID-19 at the 3 schools, many of whom had a history of visiting the same multi-use facilities. The odds ratio of having visited multi-use facilities such as karaoke rooms was 1.90 (95% confidence interval, 1.03–3.50); the number of visits to a karaoke room and the visit durations were significantly higher among confirmed cases than non-confirmed cases (p=0.02 and p=0.03, respectively).
Conclusion Having a history of visiting karaoke rooms often and spending a long time there were risk factors for COVID-19 infection and inter-school transmission. Thus, it is necessary to investigate the status of multi-use facilities frequently visited by adolescents and consider incorporating them into the scope of school quarantine to prevent infectious diseases at schools in a community.
Objectives In March 2023, an alternative school in the Republic of Korea reported 12 cases of shigellosis. This study aims to analyze the epidemiological characteristics in order to determine the cause of the cluster outbreak of shigellosis and to develop prevention strategies. Methods: This study focused on 12 patients with confirmed Shigella infection and investigated their demographics, clinical features, epidemiology, diagnostics, and antimicrobial susceptibility. Following the identification of Shigella, we conducted follow-up rectal smear cultures to manage patients, implementing isolation and control measures. Results: This study investigated the emergence of multidrug-resistant Shigella following missionary activities in Cambodia, documenting a cluster infection within an alternative school in Daejeon, the Republic of Korea. The outbreak affected 56 participants, resulting in the confirmation of 12 cases. The incidence rates varied by gender and occupation, with higher rates among males and teachers. All 12 cases demonstrated multidrug resistance. Challenges included delayed pathogen confirmation and suboptimal adherence to isolation criteria. The incident prompted revisions in the criteria for isolation release, focusing on symptom resolution. The study underscores the necessity for strengthened surveillance, educational initiatives focusing on prevention in endemic areas, and improved oversight of unlicensed educational establishments. Conclusion: Successful response strategies included swift situation assessment, collaborative efforts, effective infection control measures, and modified criteria for isolation release. Continued surveillance of multidrug-resistant strains is recommended, especially in regions with a high prevalence.
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Objectives We examined factors contributing to the transmission of an acute respiratory virus within multi-use facilities, focusing on an outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in a movie theater in the Republic of Korea. Methods: This retrospective cohort study involved a descriptive analysis of 48 confirmed cases. Logistic regression was applied to a cohort of 80 theater attendees to identify risk factors for infection. The infection source and transmission route were determined through gene sequencing data analysis. Results: Of the 48 confirmed cases, 35 were theater attendees (72.9%), 10 were family members of attendees (20.8%), 2 were friends (4.2%), and 1 was an employee (2.1%). Among the 80 individuals who attended the 3rd to 5th screenings of the day, 35 became infected, representing a 43.8% attack rate. Specifically, 28 of the 33 third-screening attendees developed confirmed SARSCoV-2, constituting an 84.8% attack rate. Furthermore, 11 of the 12 cases epidemiologically linked to the theater outbreak were clustered monophyletically within the AY.69 lineage. At the time of the screening, 35 individuals (72.9%) had received 2 vaccine doses. However, vaccination status did not significantly influence infection risk. Multivariate analysis revealed that close contacts had a 15.9-fold higher risk of infection (95% confidence interval, 4.37–78.39) than casual contacts. Conclusion: SARS-CoV-2 transmission occurred within the theater, and extended into the community, via a moviegoer who attended the 3rd screening during the viral incubation period after contracting the virus from a family member. This study emphasizes the importance of adequate ventilation in theaters.
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Objectives The incidence of waterborne and foodborne infectious diseases (WFIDs) continues to increase annually, attracting significant global attention. This study examined trends in WFID outbreaks in the Republic of Korea over the 5-year period before and during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and provided foundational data to establish measures for the prevention and control of WFID outbreaks. Methods: We analyzed 2,541 WFID outbreaks from 2017 to 2021 (42,805 cases) that were reported through the Integrated Disease Surveillance System of the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency. Outbreaks were defined as the occurrence of gastrointestinal symptoms in ≥2 individuals within a group with temporal and regional epidemiological associations. The related factors associated with WFID outbreaks during the observation period were statistically analyzed. Results: The total number of WFID outbreaks significantly decreased in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic and increased to the pre-pandemic level in 2021. Different patterns were observed for each pathogen. The incidence of Salmonella outbreaks more than doubled, while norovirus outbreaks decreased significantly. Conclusion: WFID outbreaks in the Republic of Korea showed different patterns before and during the COVID-19 pandemic, influenced by infection control measures and changes in dietary consumption patterns. Outbreaks of some diseases increased, but the infection control measures applied during the pandemic resulted in a significant decrease in the overall number of WFID outbreaks. This highlights the importance of strengthening the management strategies for outbreak prevention through hygiene inspections, long-term monitoring, education, and promotion by conducting multidimensional analyses to understand the complex related factors.
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Objectives We aimed to describe the epidemiological characteristics of carbapenemase-producing Enterobacteriaceae (CPE) outbreaks in healthcare settings in the Republic of Korea between 2017 and 2022.
Methods Under the national notifiable disease surveillance system, we obtained annual descriptive statistics regarding the isolated species, carbapenemase genotype, healthcare facility type, outbreak location and duration, and number of patients affected and recommended interventions. We used epidemiological investigation reports on CPE outbreaks reported to Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency from June 2017 to September 2022.
Results Among the 168 reports analyzed, Klebsiella pneumoniae (85.1%) was the most frequently reported species, while K. pneumoniae carbapenemase (KPC, 82.7%) was the most common carbapenemase genotype. Both categories increased from 2017 to 2022 (p<0.01). General hospitals had the highest proportion (54.8%), while tertiary general hospitals demonstrated a decreasing trend (p<0.01). The largest proportion of outbreaks occurred exclusively in intensive care units (ICUs, 44.0%), and the frequency of concurrent outbreaks in ICUs and general wards increased over time (p<0.01). The median outbreak duration rose from 43.5 days before the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic (2017–2019) to 79.5 days during the pandemic (2020–2022) (p=0.01), and the median number of patients associated with each outbreak increased from 5.0 to 6.0 (p=0.03). Frequently recommended interventions included employee education (38.1%), and 3 or more measures were proposed for 45.2% of outbreaks.
Conclusion In the Republic of Korea, CPE outbreaks have been consistently dominated by K. pneumoniae and KPC. The size of these outbreaks increased during the COVID-19 pandemic. Our findings highlight the need for continuing efforts to control CPE outbreaks using a multimodal approach, while considering their epidemiology.
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Objectives The goal of this study was to help prevent and control the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) by identifying transmission routes and risk factors in livestock slaughtering and processing facilities (SPFs) and establishing an optimal intervention strategy for outbreaks.
Methods This case series study was a demographic analysis of patients with confirmed COVID-19 associated with 5 SPFs in Korea between January and June 2021. Additionally, in a retrospective cohort study, the association between COVID-19 infection and risk factors was analyzed for SPFs at which outbreaks occurred.
Results The COVID-19 attack rates were 11.2%, 24.5%, and 6.8% at 3 poultry SPFs (PSPFs) and 15.5% and 25.2% at 2 mammal SPFs (MSPFs). Regarding spatial risk factors, the COVID-19 risk levels were 12.1-, 5.2-, and 5.0-fold higher in the refrigeration/ freezing, by-product processing, and carcass cutting areas, respectively, than in the office area. The risk of COVID-19 infection was 2.1 times higher among employees of subcontractors than among employees of contractors. The COVID-19 risk levels were 5.3- and 3.0-fold higher in foreign workers than in native Korean workers in the PSPFs and MSPFs, respectively.
Conclusion As the COVID-19 pandemic continues, a detailed policy for infectious disease prevention and control intervention is needed, without interrupting economic activities. Thus, we propose an ideal intervention plan to prevent COVID-19 through disinfection and preemptive testing and to block its transmission through effective contact management during outbreaks at SPFs.
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Objectives This study aimed to assess the scale and transmission patterns of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in a religious village community in South Korea, to determine the risk factors of transmission, and to evaluate vaccine effectiveness.
Methods An epidemiological survey was conducted, and data were collected and analyzed from 602 villagers in the religious village community. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to identify the risk factors for COVID-19 transmission and to evaluate vaccine effectiveness.
Results The outbreak attack rate was 72.1% (434/602). The attack rate was high among women in their 60s, the unemployed, residents living near religious facility (<500 m), and the unvaccinated. Age, the distance between religious facility and residences, and the absence of vaccination were identified as risk factors for transmission. Vaccine effectiveness was 49.0%, and the highest effectiveness was seen in the age group of 59 years or younger (65.8%).
Conclusion This village community was isolated, with little communication with the outside world. However, the frequency of close contact between residents was relatively high, contributing to the spread of COVID-19 in the village even with relatively short exposure. Vaccination rates in the village community were also lower than those in the general public. Public health authorities should consider the potential impact of cultural factors, including religion, that could lead to the exponential spread of COVID-19 in closed village communities.
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Objectives On February 16, 2022, 12 cases of hepatitis E virus (HEV) infection were reported in a food manufacturing factory in Korea. The aim of this study was to identify additional cases and to determine the source of this HEV outbreak. Methods: This study was an in-depth investigation of 12 HEV immunoglobulin M (IgM)-positive cases and their demographic, clinical, and epidemiological characteristics. On-site specimens were collected from the environment and from humans, and a follow-up investigation was conducted 2 to 3 months after the outbreak. Results: Among 80 production workers in the factory, 12 (15.0%) had acute HEV infection, all of whom were asymptomatic. The follow-up investigation showed that 3 cases were HEV IgMpositive, while 6 were HEV IgG-positive. HEV genes were not detected in the HEV IgM-positive specimens. HEV genes were not detected in the food products or environmental specimens collected on-site. HEV was presumed to be the causative pathogen. However, it could not be confirmed that the source of infection was common consumption inside the factory. Conclusion: This was the first domestic case of an HEV infection outbreak in a food manufacturing factory in Korea. Our results provide information for the future control of outbreaks and for the preparation of measures to prevent domestic outbreaks of HEV infection.
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Objectives We descriptively reviewed a coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak at a nursing hospital in Gyeonggi Province (South Korea) and assessed the effectiveness of the first dose of the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine in a real-world population. Methods: The general process of the epidemiological investigation included a public health intervention. The relative risk (RR) of vaccinated and unvaccinated groups was calculated and compared to confirm the risk of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARSCoV-2) infection, and vaccine effectiveness was evaluated based on the calculated RR. Results: The population at risk was confined to ward E among 8 wards of Hospital X, where the outbreak occurred. This population comprised 55 people, including 39 patients, 12 nurses, and 4 caregivers, and 19 cases were identified. The RR between the vaccinated and unvaccinated groups was 0.04, resulting in a vaccine effectiveness of 95.3%. The vaccination rate of the nonpatients in ward E was the lowest in the entire hospital, whereas the overall vaccination rate of the combined patient and non-patient groups in ward E was the third lowest. Conclusion: The first dose of the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine (ChAdOx1-S) was effective in preventing SARS-CoV-2 infection. To prevent COVID-19 outbreaks in medical facilities, it is important to prioritize the vaccination of healthcare providers.
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Objectives Relatively few studies have assessed risk factors for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in public facilities used by children and adolescents. This study presents an analysis of a COVID-19 outbreak that occurred in a taekwondo gym in Korea, predominantly among children and adolescents, with the aim of providing insights on managing COVID-19 outbreaks in similar facilities. Methods: All 108 taekwondo gym students and staff received COVID-19 tests. A survey and closed-circuit television analyses were used to identify risk factors. A univariate analysis was conducted, followed by multivariate logistic regression analysis with backward elimination for variables with a significance level <0.10 in the univariate analysis. Results: COVID-19 was confirmed in 30 of 108 subjects at the taekwondo gym (attack rate, 27.8%). The outbreak started in an adult class student. This student transmitted the virus to the staff, who consequently transmitted the virus to adolescent students. In the univariate analysis, the relative risk for younger age (≤9 years) was 2.14 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.01–4.54; p=0.054), and that for food consumption inside the gym was 2.12 (95% CI, 1.04–4.30; p=0.048). In the multivariate logistic regression analysis, the odds ratio for younger age was 2.96 (95% CI, 1.07–8.20; p=0.036), and that for food consumption inside the gym was 3.00 (95% CI, 1.10–8.17; p=0.032). Conclusion: Food consumption inside the facility and young age were significant risk factors for COVID-19 transmission in this taekwondo gym. Food consumption should be prohibited in sports facilities, and infection prevention education for young students is also required.
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Objectives We investigated the impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on tuberculosis (TB) management in the Republic of Korea (ROK).
Methods This retrospective cross-sectional study used nationwide ROK TB notification data (98,346 cases) from 2017 to 2020. The median time from the onset of TB symptoms to treatment initiation and the compliance rates with the required timing for notification and individual case investigations were measured and compared across periods and regions affected by the COVID-19 epidemic.
Results TB diagnosis during the COVID-19 pandemic was delayed. The median time to TB treatment initiation (25 days) in 2020 increased by 3 days compared to that of the previous 3 years (22 days) (p<0.0001). In the outbreak in Seoul, Incheon, and Gyeonggi province during August, the time to TB diagnosis was 4 days longer than in the previous 3 years (p=0.0303). In the outbreak in Daegu and Gyeongbuk province from February to March 2020, the compliance rate with the required timing for individual case investigations was 2.2%p points lower than in other areas in 2020 (p=0.0148). For public health centers, the rate was 13%p lower than in other areas (80.3% vs. 93.3%, p=0.0003).
Conclusion TB diagnoses during the COVID-19 pandemic in the ROK were delayed nationwide, especially for patients notified by public-private mix TB control hospitals. TB individual case investigations were delayed in regional COVID-19 outbreak areas (Daegu and Gyeongbuk province), especially in public health centers. Developing strategies to address this issue will be helpful for sustainable TB management during future outbreaks.
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Objectives
This study analyzed trends in foodborne and waterborne diseases in South Korea between 2015 and 2019.
Methods
The data consisted of information on outbreaks of waterborne and foodborne infectious diseases reported through the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC) system. We analyzed the trends and epidemiological aspects of outbreaks by month, place of occurrence, and causative pathogens in this observational study.
Results
The number of outbreaks has steadily increased over the last 5 years, but the number of cases per outbreak has followed a decreasing trend. Incidence at daycare centers and preschools has been steadily increasing over consecutive years.
Conclusion
The steady number of patients and decreasing number of cases per outbreak, even as the number of outbreaks has been increasing, suggest that the KCDC’s professional management system is operating effectively. It is necessary to continue improving the objectivity and efficiency of the management system and to carefully examine the increasing number of outbreaks in smaller-scale group catering facilities, such as daycare centers and preschools. Outbreaks can be prevented by closely examining those caused by unidentified pathogens and group outbreaks caused by other diseases, identifying problems, and supplementing the management system.
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Osong Public Health Res Perspect 2020;11(5):280-285. Published online October 22, 2020
<sec>
<title>Objectives</title>
<p>The Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has published “A Guideline for Unknown Disease Outbreaks (UDO).” The aim of this report was to introduce tabletop exercises (TTX) to prepare for UDO in the future.</p></sec>
<sec>
<title>Methods</title>
<p>The UDO Laboratory Analyses Task Force in Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in April 2018, assigned unknown diseases into 5 syndromes, designed an algorithm for diagnosis, and made a panel list for diagnosis by exclusion. Using the guidelines and laboratory analyses for UDO, TTX were introduced.</p></sec>
<sec>
<title>Results</title>
<p>Since September 9<sup>th</sup>, 2018, the UDO Laboratory Analyses Task Force has been preparing TTX based on a scenario of an outbreak caused by a novel coronavirus. In December 2019, through TTX, individual missions, epidemiological investigations, sample treatments, diagnosis by exclusions, and next generation sequencing analysis were discussed, and a novel coronavirus was identified as the causal pathogen.</p></sec>
<sec>
<title>Conclusion</title>
<p>Guideline and laboratory analyses for UDO successfully applied in TTX. Conclusions drawn from TTX could be applied effectively in the analyses for the initial response to COVID-19, an ongoing epidemic of 2019 – 2020. Therefore, TTX should continuously be conducted for the response and preparation against UDO.</p></sec>
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Objectives
Food- and water-borne disease outbreaks (FBDOs) are an important public health problem worldwide. This study investigated the trends in FBDOs in Korea and established emerging causal pathogens and causal vehicles. Methods
We analyzed FBDOs in Korea by year, location, causal pathogens, and causal vehicles from 2007 to 2012. Information was collected from the FBDOs database in the Korean Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Results
During 2007–2012, a total of 1794 FBDOs and 48,897 patients were reported. After 2007, FBDOs and patient numbers steadily decreased over the next 2 years and then plateaued until 2011. However, in 2012, FBDOs increased slightly accompanied by a large increase in the number of affected patients. Our results highlight the emergence of norovirus and pathogenic <i>Escherichia coli</i> other than enterohemorrhagic <i>E. coli</i> (EHEC) in schools in 2012. We found that pickled vegetables is an emerging causal vehicle responsible for this problem. Conclusion
On the basis of this study we recommend intensified inspections of pickled vegetable manufacturers and the strengthening of laboratory surveillance of relevant pathogens.
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Objectives
Ebola hemorrhagic fever has killed over 1300 people, mostly in equatorial Africa. There is still uncertainty about the natural reservoir of the virus and about some of the factors involved in disease transmission. Until now, a maximum incubation period of 21 days has been assumed. Methods
We analyzed data collected during the Ebola outbreak (subtype Zaire) in Kikwit, Democratic Republic of the Congo, in 1995 using maximum likelihood inference and assuming a log-normally distributed incubation period. Results
The mean incubation period was estimated to be 12.7 days (standard deviation 4.31 days), indicating that about 4.1% of patients may have incubation periods longer than 21 days. Conclusion
If the risk of new cases is to be reduced to 1% then 25 days should be used when investigating the source of an outbreak, when determining the duration of surveillance for contacts, and when declaring the end of an outbreak.
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