Osong Public Health and Research Perspectives

Temporal dynamics and forecasting of laboratory-confirmed human nontyphoidal Salmonella cases in Malaysia, 2018–2024: implications for surveillance: Hazlienor Mohd Hatta, Kamarul Imran Musa, Suhaily Mohd Hairon, Nik Mohd Hafiz Mohd Fuzi, Normaizura Mokhter, Norfaizah Sulaiman, Amutha Ayasamy, Rohani Ismail, Rohaidah Hashim, Jason Wei Jian Ng; Received March 25, 2026 Accepted August 9, 2026 Published online October 13, 2026; DOI: https://doi.org/10.24171/j.phrp.2026.0293 [Epub ahead of print]

Objectives
Nontyphoidal Salmonella (NTS) is a major cause of foodborne illness in Malaysia. Time-series modeling can characterize temporal patterns, although structural disruptions, nonlinear dynamics, and regional variability may affect model performance. This study aimed to characterize NTS seasonality in Malaysia, assess temporal stability, and explore model-based approaches for surveillance.
Methods
Monthly laboratory-confirmed human NTS cases from national laboratory surveillance databases for 2018–2024 were analyzed using time-series models, including autoregressive integrated moving-average (ARIMA) models with Fourier terms and an exploratory hybrid ARIMA–long short-term memory (LSTM) model. Interrupted time-series analysis was used to assess structural stability. Anomalies were identified using 95% prediction intervals, and stratified modeling assessed regional heterogeneity.
Results
NTS cases showed recurring annual seasonal patterns of moderate strength, with temporal variation over the study period. A significant decline occurred in March 2020 (β=−62.24 cases, p=0.001), followed by gradual recovery (β=2.71 cases/month, p<0.001), suggesting a marked coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic-related disruption and a subsequent positive post-intervention trend. The ARIMA(0,1,1)–Fourier (K=1) model outperformed conventional ARIMA, benchmark, and exponential smoothing models (root mean squared error, 42.9 vs. 51.37–108.79). The hybrid ARIMA–LSTM model provided modest additional improvement, particularly during high-case periods. Model-based anomaly detection identified deviations from expected patterns that coincided with documented outbreak-associated months. Regional heterogeneity in temporal dynamics suggested the need for surveillance strategies tailored to local epidemiological patterns.
Conclusion
Parsimonious models captured most temporal patterns in NTS cases, with only modest gains from more complex approaches. Context-specific modeling strategies, model-based anomaly detection, and tiered surveillance frameworks may support more proactive NTS surveillance in Malaysia.

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Economic effectiveness of training personnel for infectious disease response and improving information systems in Republic of Korea: a cost-benefit analysis: Sunung Moon, Sangwon Lee, Yunhyung Kwon, Chaeeun Lee, Nahyun Kwon; Received January 27, 2026 Accepted June 18, 2026 Published online August 14, 2026; DOI: https://doi.org/10.24171/j.phrp.2026.0019 [Epub ahead of print]

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Modeling social and behavioral factors associated with community participation in community-based surveillance of communicable diseases: a cross-sectional study in Kelantan, Malaysia: Ahmed Azeez Hasan, Anis Kausar Ghazali, Norsa’adah Bachok, Najib Majdi Yaacob, Suhaily Mohd Hairon, Nur Amira Mohd Nadir, Fatimah Muhd Shukri; Osong Public Health Res Perspect 2026;17(3):229-241.
Published online May 11, 2026; DOI: https://doi.org/10.24171/j.phrp.2025.0447

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Time-series decomposition and modeling of dengue cases in Malaysia, 2022–2024: a nationwide observational study: Mohamad Afiq Amsyar Hamedin, Kamarul Imran Musa, Mohd Rahim Sulong; Osong Public Health Res Perspect 2026;17(1):50-60.
Published online January 27, 2026; DOI: https://doi.org/10.24171/j.phrp.2025.0397

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A confirmatory analysis of the knowledge, attitudes, and perceptions questionnaire for community-based surveillance of infectious diseases: a cross-sectional study in Malaysia: Ahmed Azeez Hasan, Anis Kausar Ghazali, Najib Majdi Yacoob, Norsa’adah Bachok, Suhaily Mohd Hairon, Nur Amira M. Nadir, Fatimah Muhd Shukri; Osong Public Health Res Perspect 2025;16(5):508-518.
Published online August 12, 2025; DOI: https://doi.org/10.24171/j.phrp.2025.0106

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SWOT strategy for future global health security: insights from Indonesia, Cambodia, Vietnam, Dominican Republic, Ghana, and the Republic of Korea using the World Health Organization International Health Regulations monitoring tool: Moonsoo Yoon, Nuha Fairusya, Thao Le Nhu Nguyen, Diomarys Ishaura Jimenez-Baez, Vichuta Prak, Osei Kuffour Afreh, Chaeshin Chu; Osong Public Health Res Perspect 2025;16(2):152-159.
Published online March 12, 2025; DOI: https://doi.org/10.24171/j.phrp.2024.0314

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Evaluation of the acute hepatitis B surveillance system in the Republic of Korea following the transition to mandatory surveillance: Jaehwa Chung, Jeonghee Yu, Myeongeun Cheon, Sangwoo Tak; Osong Public Health Res Perspect 2024;15(4):353-363.
Published online August 1, 2024; DOI: https://doi.org/10.24171/j.phrp.2024.0083

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Developing a national surveillance system for stroke and acute myocardial infarction using claims data in the Republic of Korea: a retrospective study: Tae Jung Kim, Hak Seung Lee, Seong-Eun Kim, Jinju Park, Jun Yup Kim, Jiyoon Lee, Ji Eun Song, Jin-Hyuk Hong, Joongyub Lee, Joong-Hwa Chung, Hyeon Chang Kim, Dong-Ho Shin, Hae-Young Lee, Bum Joon Kim, Woo-Keun Seo, Jong-Moo Park, Soo Joo Lee, Keun-Hwa Jung, Sun U. Kwon, Yun-Chul Hong, Hyo-Soo Kim, Hyun-Jae Kang, Juneyoung Lee, Hee-Joon Bae; Osong Public Health Res Perspect 2024;15(1):18-32.
Published online January 31, 2024; DOI: https://doi.org/10.24171/j.phrp.2023.0248

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Epidemiological characteristics of carbapenemase-producing Enterobacteriaceae outbreaks in the Republic of Korea between 2017 and 2022: Hyoseon Jeong, Junghee Hyun, Yeon-Kyeng Lee; Osong Public Health Res Perspect 2023;14(4):312-320.
Published online August 21, 2023; DOI: https://doi.org/10.24171/j.phrp.2023.0069

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Microbiological and clinical impact of aminoglycosides on KPC-producing Klebsiella pneumoniae bacteraemia with aminoglycoside-modifying enzymes
Jae Eun Seong, Sang Min Ahn, Min Han, Yong Seop Lee, Jung Ah Lee, Jae Hoon Kim, Jung Ho Kim, Jin Young Ahn, Su Jin Jeong, Nam Su Ku, Joon Sup Yeom, Hyukmin Lee, Jun Yong Choi
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Ji Hun Kim, Eunmi Yang, Yun Woo Lee, Han-Sung Kim, Hyeonji Seo
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Multidrug-resistant organism co-colonization in patients with discordant direct stool Xpert Carba-R and culture-based carbapenemase-producing Enterobacterales surveillance results
Cheon-Hoo Jun, Si-Ho Kim, Hyoung Tae Kim, Yu Mi Wi
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Comparison of clinical outcomes of patients with serial negative surveillance cultures according to a subsequent polymerase chain reaction test for carbapenemase-producing Enterobacterales
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Min Seo Kang, Jin Yang Baek, Jae-Hoon Ko, Sun Young Cho, Keon Young Lee, Young Ho Lee, Jinyoung Yang, Tae Yeul Kim, Hee Jae Huh, Nam Yong Lee, Kyungmin Huh, Cheol-In Kang, Doo Ryeon Chung, Kyong Ran Peck, Bobby G. Warren
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Performance comparison of BD Phoenix CPO detect panel with Cepheid Xpert Carba-R assay for the detection of carbapenemase-producing Klebsiella pneumoniae isolates
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BMC Microbiology.2024;[Epub] CrossRef

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Changes in the pattern and disease burden of acute respiratory viral infections before and during the COVID-19 pandemic: Chungmin Park, Donghan Lee, Bryan Inho Kim, Sujin Park, Gyehee Lee, Sangwoo Tak; Osong Public Health Res Perspect 2022;13(3):203-211.
Published online June 30, 2022; DOI: https://doi.org/10.24171/j.phrp.2022.0144

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Spatiotemporal analysis of environmental and physiographic factors related to malaria in Bareilly district, India: Shikhar Chaudhary, Biju Soman; Osong Public Health Res Perspect 2022;13(2):123-132.
Published online March 31, 2022; DOI: https://doi.org/10.24171/j.phrp.2021.0304

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Distribution of Pathogenic Vibrio Species in the Coastal Seawater of South Korea (2017–2018): Seung Hun Lee, Hee Jung Lee, Go Eun Myung, Eun Jin Choi, In A Kim, Young Il Jeong, Gi Jun Park, Sang Moon Soh; Osong Public Health Res Perspect 2019;10(6):337-342.
Published online December 31, 2019; DOI: https://doi.org/10.24171/j.phrp.2019.10.6.03

Abstract
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<sec> <title>Objectives</title> Pathogenic <italic>Vibrio</italic> species are widely distributed in warm estuarine and coastal environments, and can infect humans through the consumption of raw or mishandled contaminated seafood and seawater. For this reason, the distribution of these bacteria in South Korea was investigated.</sec> <sec> <title>Methods</title> Seawater samples were collected from 145 coastal area points in the aquatic environment in which <italic>Vibrio</italic> species live. Environmental data (i.e., water temperature, salinity, turbidity, and atmospheric temperature) was collected which may help predict the distribution of the species (data not shown). Seawater samples were filtered, and incubated overnight in alkaline peptone water, at 37°C. Using species-specific polymerase chain reaction methods, screening tests were performed for the <italic>hlyA, ctxA, vvhA</italic>, and <italic>tlh</italic> genes. Clones of pathogenic <italic>Vibrio</italic> species were isolated using 3 selective plating media.</sec> <sec> <title>Results</title> In 2017, total seawater isolation rates for <italic>Vibrio vulnificus</italic>, <italic>Vibrio cholerae</italic> (non-pathogenic, non-O1, non-O139 serogroups), and <italic>Vibrio parahaemolyticus</italic> were 15.82%, 13.18%, 65.80%, respectively. However, in 2018 isolation rates for each were 21.81%, 19.40%, and 70.05%, respectively.</sec> <sec> <title>Conclusion</title> The isolation rates of pathogenic <italic>Vibrio</italic> species positively correlated with the temperature of seawater and atmosphere, but negatively correlated with salinity and turbidity. From 2017 to 2018, the most frequent seawater-isolated <italic>Vibrio</italic> species were <italic>V. parahaemolyticus</italic> (68.10 %), <italic>V. vulnificus</italic> (16.54%), and non-toxigenic <italic>V. cholerae</italic> (19.58%). Comprehensive monitoring, prevention, and control efforts are needed to protect the public from pathogenic <italic>Vibrio</italic> species.</sec>

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Enhancing ‘Whole-of-Government’ Response to Biological Events in Korea: Able Response 2014: Sangwoo Tak, Anton Jareb, Suon Choi, Marvin Sikes, Yeon Hwa Choi, Hyeong-wook Boo; Osong Public Health Res Perspect 2018;9(1):32-35.
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Tuberculosis Notification Completeness and Timeliness in the Republic of Korea During 2012–2014: Hae-Young Kang, Hyosoon Yoo, Wonseo Park, Unyeong Go, Eunkyeong Jeong, Ki-Suck Jung, Hyunjin Son; Osong Public Health Res Perspect 2016;7(5):320-326.
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