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Original Article

KCDC Risk Assessments on the Initial Phase of the COVID-19 Outbreak in Korea

Osong Public Health and Research Perspectives 2020;11(2):67-73.
Published online: March 31, 2020

Division of Risk Assessment and International Cooperation, Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Cheongju, Korea

*Corresponding author: Seon Kui Lee, Division of Risk Assessment and International Cooperation, Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Cheongju, Korea, E-mail: byuly74@korea.kr
• Received: March 23, 2020   • Revised: March 24, 2020   • Accepted: March 25, 2020

Copyright ©2020, Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).

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KCDC Risk Assessments on the Initial Phase of the COVID-19 Outbreak in Korea
Osong Public Health Res Perspect. 2020;11(2):67-73.   Published online April 30, 2020
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KCDC Risk Assessments on the Initial Phase of the COVID-19 Outbreak in Korea
Image Image
Figure 1 Trend of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Korea and risk assessment results.
Figure 2 Trend of confirmed cases and deaths of COVID-19 in China.
KCDC Risk Assessments on the Initial Phase of the COVID-19 Outbreak in Korea

KCDC risk assessments for COVID-19.

Assessment no. (date) Overall risk Probability* Impact Importation Transmission Main trigger for risk assessment
1st (Jan. 8th) Low Low Very low Low Low Need for risk assessment of the overall situation
2nd (Jan. 16th) Moderate High High Moderate Low The official report of imported cases in Thailand (Jan. 13th) and Japan (Jan. 16th)
3rd (Jan. 20th) High High Very high Moderate Moderate The confirmation of the first imported case in Korea (Jan. 20th)
4th (Jan. 26th) High High Very high High High The rapid increase of the number of confirmed cases in China
5th (Jan. 27th) High Very high Very high Very high High Identification of healthcare worker infection in other countries and potential risk of hospital outbreaks
6th (Jan. 31st) High Very high Very high Very high High Declaration of Public Health Emergency of International Concern by the WHO (Jan. 31st)
7th (Feb. 19th) High Very high Very high Very high High Identification of confirmed cases with no clear epidemiological link (Feb. 16th) and cluster cases related to a private religious group in Daegu province in Korea
8th (Feb.23rd) Very high Very high very High Very high Very high The exponentially growing number of confirmed cases in Korea

*Probability is decided in consideration of importation and transmission.

Table 1 KCDC risk assessments for COVID-19.

Probability is decided in consideration of importation and transmission.