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PHRP : Osong Public Health and Research Perspectives

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Original Articles
Accuracy of Self-reported Hypertension, Diabetes, and Hypercholesterolemia: Analysis of a Representative Sample of Korean Older Adults
Heeran Chun, Il-Ho Kim, Kyung-Duk Min
Osong Public Health Res Perspect. 2016;7(2):108-115.   Published online April 30, 2016
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.phrp.2015.12.002
  • 2,032 View
  • 23 Download
  • 38 Citations
AbstractAbstract PDF
Objectives
This study will assess the accuracy of self-reported hypertension, diabetes, and hypercholesterolemia among Korean older adults.
Methods
Using data from the fourth Korean National Health Examination and Nutrition Survey (KNHANES IV, 2007–2009), we selected 7,270 individuals aged 50 years and older who participated in both a health examination and a health interview survey. Self-reported prevalence of hypertension (HTN), diabetes mellitus (DM), and hypercholesterolemia was compared with measured data (arterial systolic/diastolic blood pressure, fasting glucose, and total cholesterol).
Results
An agreement between self-reported and measured data was only moderate for hypercholesterolemia (κ, 0.48), even though it was high for HTN (κ, 0.72) and DM (κ, 0. 82). Sensitivity was low in hypercholesterolemia (46.7%), but high in HTN and DM (73% and 79.3%, respectively). Multiple analysis shows that predictors for sensitivity differed by disease. People with less education were more likely to exhibit lower sensitivity to HTN and hypercholesterolemia, and people living in rural areas were less sensitive to DM and hypercholesterolemia.
Conclusion
Caution is needed in interpreting the results of community studies using self-reported data on chronic diseases, especially hypercholesterolemia, among adults aged 50 years and older.
A Differential Equation Model for the Dynamics of Youth Gambling
Tae Sug Do, Young S. Lee
Osong Public Health Res Perspect. 2014;5(4):233-241.   Published online August 31, 2014
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.phrp.2014.06.008
  • 1,848 View
  • 12 Download
  • 6 Citations
AbstractAbstract PDF
Objectives
We examine the dynamics of gambling among young people aged 16–24 years, how prevalence rates of at-risk gambling and problem gambling change as adolescents enter young adulthood, and prevention and control strategies.
Methods
A simple epidemiological model is created using ordinary nonlinear differential equations, and a threshold condition that spreads gambling is identified through stability analysis. We estimate all the model parameters using a longitudinal prevalence study by Winters, Stinchfield, and Botzet to run numerical simulations. Parameters to which the system is most sensitive are isolated using sensitivity analysis.
Results
Problem gambling is endemic among young people, with a steady prevalence of approximately 4–5%. The prevalence of problem gambling is lower in young adults aged 18–24 years than in adolescents aged 16–18 years. At-risk gambling among young adults has increased. The parameters to which the system is most sensitive correspond to primary prevention.
Conclusion
Prevention and control strategies for gambling should involve school education. A mathematical model that includes the effect of early exposure to gambling would be helpful if a longitudinal study can provide data in the future.
Statistical Evaluation of Two Microbiological Diagnostic Methods of Pulmonary Tuberculosis After Implementation of a Directly Observed Treatment Short-course Program
Shakti Rath, Debasmita Dubey, Mahesh C. Sahu, Sudhanshu S. Mishra, Rabindra N. Padhy
Osong Public Health Res Perspect. 2013;4(1):45-51.   Published online February 28, 2013
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.phrp.2012.12.004
  • 1,892 View
  • 16 Download
  • 2 Citations
AbstractAbstract PDF
Objectives
To evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of smear and culture tests of clinical samples of pulmonary tuberculosis after the introduction of the directly observed treatment short-course (DOTS) program.
Methods
Using sputum samples from 572 individuals as a self-selected population, both Ziehl–Neelsen staining and culturing on Lowenstein–Jensen medium were carried out as diagnostic procedures. Using Bayes’ rule, the obtained data set was analyzed.
Results
Of the 572 samples, 33 (0.05769) were true positive (results of both tests positive) cases; 22 samples (0.03846) were false positive (smear test positive and culture test negative) cases; 62 samples (0.10839) were false negative (smear test negative and culture test positive) cases; and 455 samples (0.79545) were true negative (results of both tests negative) cases. Values of test statistics, sensitivity, and specificity were used to compute several inherent other Bayesian test statistics. The a priori probability or prevalence value of tuberculosis in the targeted population was 0.166. The a posteriori probability value computed arithmetically was 0.6614 and that obtained by the graphical method was 0.62.
Conclusions
The smear test was found to be dependable for 95.4% with stable TB infections, and it was not dependable for 34.7% without stable TB infections. The culture test could be regarded as the gold standard for 96.15% as seen with the data set, which was obtained after the implementation of the DOTS program.
Articles
Sensitivity Analysis of the Parameters of Korea’s Pandemic Influenza Preparedness Plan
Chaeshin Chu, Junehawk Lee, Dong Hoon Choi, Seung-Ki Youn, Jong-Koo Lee
Osong Public Health Res Perspect. 2011;2(3):210-215.   Published online December 31, 2011
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.phrp.2011.11.048
  • 1,744 View
  • 16 Download
  • 10 Citations
AbstractAbstract PDF
Objectives
Our aim was to evaluate Korea’s Pandemic Influenza Preparedness Plan.
Methods
We conducted a sensitivity analysis on the expected number of outpatients and hospital bed occupancy, with 1,000,000 parameter combinations, in a situation of pandemic influenza, using the mathematical simulation program InfluSim.
Results
Given the available resources in Korea, antiviral treatment and social distancing must be combined to reduce the number of outpatients and hospitalizations sufficiently; any single intervention is not enough. The antiviral stockpile of 4–6% is sufficient for the expected eligible number of cases to be treated. However, the eligible number assumed (30% for severe cases and 26% for extremely severe cases) is very low compared to the corresponding number in European countries, where up to 90% of the population are assumed to be eligible for antiviral treatment.
Conclusions
A combination of antiviral treatment and social distancing can mitigate a pandemic, but will only bring it under control for the most optimistic parameter combinations.

PHRP : Osong Public Health and Research Perspectives