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1 "out-of-sample prediction"
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Original Article
Prediction Forecast for Culex tritaeniorhynchus Populations in Korea
Nam-Hyun Kim, Wook-Gyo Lee, E-Hyun Shin, Jong Yul Roh, Hae-Chun Rhee, Mi Yeoun Park
Osong Public Health Res Perspect. 2014;5(3):131-137.   Published online June 30, 2014
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AbstractAbstract PDF
Japanese encephalitis is considered as a secondary legal infectious disease in Korea and is transmitted by mosquitoes in the summer season. The purpose of this study was to predict the ratio of Culex tritaeniorhynchus to all the species of mosquitoes present in the study regions.
From 1999 to 2012, black light traps were installed in 10 regions in Korea (Busan, Gyeonggi, Gangwon, Chungbuk, Chungnam, Jeonbuk, Jeonnam, Gyeongbuk, Gyeongnam, and Jeju) to capture mosquitoes for identification and classification under a dissecting microscope. The number of mosquitoes captured/week was used to calculate its daily occurrence (mosquitoes/trap/night). To predict the characteristics of the mosquito population, an autoregressive model of order p (AR(p)) was used to execute the out-of-sample prediction and the in-sample estimation after presumption.
Compared with the out-of-sample method, the sample-weighted regression method's case was relatively superior for prediction, and this method predicted a decrease in the frequency of Cx. tritaeniorhynchus for 2013. However, the actual frequency of this species showed an increase in frequency. By contrast, the frequency rate of all the mosquitoes including Cx. tritaeniorhynchus gradually decreased.
The number of patients with Japanese encephalitis has been strongly associated with the occurrence and density of vector mosquitoes, and the importance of this infectious disease has been highlighted since 2010. The 2013 prediction indicated an increase after an initial decrease, although the ratio of the two mosquito species decreased. The increase in vector density may be due to changes in temperature and the environment. Thus, continuous prevalence prediction is warranted.


Citations to this article as recorded by  
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    PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases.2022; 16(2): e0010218.     CrossRef
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  • The mitochondrial genomes of Culex tritaeniorhynchus and Culex pipiens pallens (Diptera: Culicidae) and comparison analysis with two other Culex species
    Qian-Chun Luo, You-Jin Hao, Fengxia Meng, Ting-Jing Li, Yi-Ran Ding, Ya-Qiong Hua, Bin Chen
    Parasites & Vectors.2016;[Epub]     CrossRef

PHRP : Osong Public Health and Research Perspectives