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Original Article
Transmission parameters of coronavirus disease 2019 in South Asian countries
Mridul Sannyal, Abul Mukid Mohammad Mukaddes
Osong Public Health Res Perspect. 2022;13(3):191-202.   Published online June 23, 2022
DOI: https://doi.org/10.24171/j.phrp.2021.0234
  • 96 View
  • 7 Download
AbstractAbstract PDF
Objectives
This study aimed to estimate the transmission parameters, effective reproduction number, epidemic peak, and future exposure of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in South Asian countries.
Methods
A susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered-death (SEIRD) model programmed with MATLAB was developed for this purpose. Data were collected (till June 28, 2021) from the official webpage of World Health Organization, along with the Center for Systems Science and Engineering at Johns Hopkins University. The model was simulated to measure the primary transmission parameters. The reproduction number was measured using the next-generating matrix method.
Results
The primary transmission rate followed an exponential Gaussian process regression. India showed the highest transmission rate (0.037) and Bhutan the lowest (0.023). The simulated epidemic peaks matched the reported peaks, thereby validating the SEIRD model. The simulation was carried out up to December 31, 2020 using the reported data till June 9, 2020.
Conclusion
The information gathered in this research will be helpful for authorities to prevent the transmission of COVID-19 in the subsequent wave or in the future.
Review Article
Review of the early reports of the epidemiological characteristics of the B.1.1.7 variant of SARS-CoV-2 and its spread worldwide
Yeonju Kim, Eun-Jin Kim, Sang-Won Lee, Donghyok Kwon
Osong Public Health Res Perspect. 2021;12(3):139-148.   Published online June 24, 2021
DOI: https://doi.org/10.24171/j.phrp.2021.0037
  • 3,101 View
  • 127 Download
  • 2 Citations
AbstractAbstract PDF
The variant B.1.1.7 of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the RNA virus causing the pandemic more than a year worldwide, was reported from United Kingdom (UK) in late December 2020. It was reported that mortality increases by 65% and transmissibility increases by 70%, which may result in an increase of reproduction number to 1.13−1.55 from 0.75−0.85. To analyze the global increasing trend of the variant B.1.1.7, we extracted results of B.1.1.7 from GISAID on May 11 and May 12, 2021, and conducted a doseresponse regression. It took 47 days to reach 20% and 121 days to reach 50% among the sequence submitted from UK. In Korea, cases of B.1.1.7 have increased since the first report of three cases on December 28, 2020. Positive rate of B.1.1.7 in Korea was 21.6% in the week from May 9 to May 15, 2021. Detection rate of the variants is expected to increase further and new variants of SARS-CoV-2 are emerging, so a close monitoring and control would be maintained for months.
Original Articles
Alarm Thresholds for Pertussis Outbreaks in Iran: National Data Analysis
Yousef Alimohamadi, Seyed Mohsen Zahraei, Manoochehr Karami, Mehdi Yaseri, Mojtaba Lotfizad, Kourosh Holakouie-Naieni
Osong Public Health Res Perspect. 2020;11(5):309-318.   Published online October 22, 2020
DOI: https://doi.org/10.24171/j.phrp.2020.11.5.07
  • 2,746 View
  • 40 Download
  • 1 Citations
AbstractAbstract PDF
Objectives

The purpose of the current study was to determine the upper threshold number of cases for which pertussis infection would reach an outbreak level nationally in Iran.

Methods

Data on suspected cases of pertussis from the 25th February 2012 to the 23rd March 2018 from the Center for Disease Control and Prevention in Iran was used. The national upper threshold level was estimated using the exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) method and the Poisson regression method.

Results

In total, 2,577 (33.6%) and 1,714 (22.3%) cases were reported in the Spring and Summer respectively. There were 1,417 (18.5%) and 1,971 (25.6%) cases reported in the Autumn and Winter, respectively. The overall upper threshold using the EWMA and the Poisson regression methods, was estimated as a daily occurrence of 8 (7.55) and 7.50 (4.48–11.06) suspected cases per 10,000,000 people, respectively. The daily seasonal thresholds estimated by the EWMA and the Poisson regression methods were 10, 7, 6, 8 cases and 10, 7, 7, 9 cases for the Spring, Summer, Autumn, and Winter, respectively.

Conclusion

The overall and seasonal estimated thresholds by the 2 methods were similar. Therefore, the estimated thresholds of 6–10 cases in a day, per 10,000,000 people could be used to detect pertussis outbreaks and epidemics by health policymakers.

Development and Utilization of a Rapid and Accurate Epidemic Investigation Support System for COVID-19
Young Joon Park, Sang Yun Cho, Jin Lee, Ikjin Lee, Won-Ho Park, Seungmyeong Jeong, Seongyun Kim, Seokjun Lee, Jaeho Kim, Ok Park
Osong Public Health Res Perspect. 2020;11(3):118-127.   Published online May 20, 2020
DOI: https://doi.org/10.24171/j.phrp.2020.11.3.06
  • 8,235 View
  • 269 Download
  • 14 Citations
AbstractAbstract PDF
Objectives

In this pandemic situation caused by a novel coronavirus disease in 2019 (COVID-19), an electronic support system that can rapidly and accurately perform epidemic investigations, is needed. It would systematically secure and analyze patients’ data (who have been confirmed to have the infection), location information, and credit card usage.

Methods

The “Infectious Disease Prevention and Control Act” in South Korea, established a legal basis for the securement, handling procedure, and disclosure of information required for epidemic investigations. The Epidemic Investigation Support System (EISS) was developed as an application platform on the Smart City data platform.

Results

The EISS performed the function of inter-institutional communication which reduced the processing period of patients’ data in comparison to other methods. This system automatically marked confirmed cases’ tracking data on a map and hot-spot analysis which lead to the prediction of areas where people may be vulnerable to infection.

Conclusion

The EISS was designed and implemented for use during an epidemic investigation to prevent the spread of an infectious disease, by specifically tracking confirmed cases of infection.

Brief Reports
Epidemics of Norovirus GII.4 Variant in Outbreak Cases in Korea, 2004–2012
Sunyoung Jung, Hyun Ju Jeong, Bo-Mi Hwang, Cheon-Kwon Yoo, Gyung Tae Chung, Hyesook Jeong, Yeon-Ho Kang, Deog-Yong Lee
Osong Public Health Res Perspect. 2015;6(5):318-321.   Published online October 31, 2015
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.phrp.2015.10.002
  • 1,532 View
  • 19 Download
  • 1 Citations
AbstractAbstract PDF
Norovirus GII.4 is recognized as a worldwide cause of nonbacterial outbreaks. In particular, the GII.4 variant occurs every 2–3 years according to antigenic variation. The aim of our study was to identify GII.4 variants in outbreaks in Korea during 2004–2012. Partial VP1 sequence of norovirus GII.4-related outbreaks during 2004–2012 was analyzed. The partial VP1 sequence was detected with reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction, seminested polymerase chain reaction, and nucleotide sequence of 312-314 base pairs for phylogenetic comparison. Nine variants emerged in outbreaks, with the Sydney variant showing predominance recently. This predominance may persist for at least 3 years, although new variants may appear in Korea.
Epidemic Intelligence Service Officers and Field Epidemiology Training Program in Korea
Geun-Yong Kwon, Shinje Moon, Wooseok Kwak, Jin Gwack, Chaeshin Chu, Seung-Ki Youn
Osong Public Health Res Perspect. 2013;4(4):215-221.   Published online August 31, 2013
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.phrp.2013.07.001
  • 1,534 View
  • 19 Download
  • 9 Citations
AbstractAbstract PDF
Korea has adopted Epidemic Intelligence Service (EIS) officers through the Field Epidemiology Training Program (FETP) since 1999 for systematic control of emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases. Graduates of medical schools in Korea are selected and serve as public health doctors (PHDs) for their mandatory military service. The duration of service is 3 years and PHDs comprise general practitioners and specialists. Some PHDs are selected as EIS officers with 3 weeks basic FETP training and work for central and provincial public health authorities to conduct epidemiological investigations. The total number of EIS officers is 31 as of 2012. The Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC) has 12 specialists, whereas specialists and each province has one or two EIS officers to administer local epidemiological investigations in 253 public health centers. The Korean EIS officers have successfully responded and prevented infectious diseases, but there is a unique limitation: the number of PHDs in Korea is decreasing and PHDs are not allowed to stay outside Korea, which makes it difficult to cope with overseas infectious diseases. Furthermore, after 3 years service, they quit and their experiences are not accumulated. KCDC has hired full-time EIS officers since 2012 to overcome this limitation.
Original Article
A Note on Obesity as Epidemic in Korea
Mun Seok Kim, Chaeshin Chu, Yongkuk Kim
Osong Public Health Res Perspect. 2011;2(2):135-140.   Published online June 30, 2011
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.phrp.2011.08.004
  • 1,390 View
  • 13 Download
  • 9 Citations
AbstractAbstract PDF
Objective To analyze the incidence of obesity in adults aged 19–59 years in Korea and predict its trend in the future.
Methods
We considered a two-compartmental deterministic mathematical model Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS), a system of difference equations, to predict the evolution of obesity in the population and to propose strategies to reduce its incidence.
Results
The prevention strategy on normal-weight individuals produced a greater improvement than that produced by treatment strategies.
Conclusions
Mathematical model sensitivity analysis suggests that obesity prevention strategies are more effective than obesity treatment strategies in controlling the increase of adult obesity in Korea.

PHRP : Osong Public Health and Research Perspectives