Objectives This study aimed to estimate the transmission parameters, effective reproduction number, epidemic peak, and future exposure of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in South Asian countries. Methods: A susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered-death (SEIRD) model programmed with MATLAB was developed for this purpose. Data were collected (till June 28, 2021) from the official webpage of World Health Organization, along with the Center for Systems Science and Engineering at Johns Hopkins University. The model was simulated to measure the primary transmission parameters. The reproduction number was measured using the next-generating matrix method. Results: The primary transmission rate followed an exponential Gaussian process regression. India showed the highest transmission rate (0.037) and Bhutan the lowest (0.023). The simulated epidemic peaks matched the reported peaks, thereby validating the SEIRD model. The simulation was carried out up to December 31, 2020 using the reported data till June 9, 2020. Conclusion: The information gathered in this research will be helpful for authorities to prevent the transmission of COVID-19 in the subsequent wave or in the future.
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MODIFIED SEIRD MODEL: A NOVEL SYSTEM DYNAMICS APPROACH IN MODELLING THE SPREAD OF COVID-19 IN MALAYSIA DURING THE PRE-VACCINATION PERIOD Norsyahidah Zulkarnain, Nurul Farahain Mohammad, Ibrahim Shogar IIUM Engineering Journal.2023; 24(2): 159. CrossRef
The variant B.1.1.7 of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the RNA virus causing the pandemic more than a year worldwide, was reported from United Kingdom (UK) in late December 2020. It was reported that mortality increases by 65% and transmissibility increases by 70%, which may result in an increase of reproduction number to 1.13−1.55 from 0.75−0.85. To analyze the global increasing trend of the variant B.1.1.7, we extracted results of B.1.1.7 from GISAID on May 11 and May 12, 2021, and conducted a doseresponse regression. It took 47 days to reach 20% and 121 days to reach 50% among the sequence submitted from UK. In Korea, cases of B.1.1.7 have increased since the first report of three cases on December 28, 2020. Positive rate of B.1.1.7 in Korea was 21.6% in the week from May 9 to May 15, 2021. Detection rate of the variants is expected to increase further and new variants of SARS-CoV-2 are emerging, so a close monitoring and control would be maintained for months.
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<sec>
<title>Objectives</title>
<p>The purpose of the current study was to determine the upper threshold number of cases for which pertussis infection would reach an outbreak level nationally in Iran.</p></sec>
<sec>
<title>Methods</title>
<p>Data on suspected cases of pertussis from the 25<sup>th</sup> February 2012 to the 23<sup>rd</sup> March 2018 from the Center for Disease Control and Prevention in Iran was used. The national upper threshold level was estimated using the exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) method and the Poisson regression method.</p></sec>
<sec>
<title>Results</title>
<p>In total, 2,577 (33.6%) and 1,714 (22.3%) cases were reported in the Spring and Summer respectively. There were 1,417 (18.5%) and 1,971 (25.6%) cases reported in the Autumn and Winter, respectively. The overall upper threshold using the EWMA and the Poisson regression methods, was estimated as a daily occurrence of 8 (7.55) and 7.50 (4.48–11.06) suspected cases per 10,000,000 people, respectively. The daily seasonal thresholds estimated by the EWMA and the Poisson regression methods were 10, 7, 6, 8 cases and 10, 7, 7, 9 cases for the Spring, Summer, Autumn, and Winter, respectively.</p></sec>
<sec>
<title>Conclusion</title>
<p>The overall and seasonal estimated thresholds by the 2 methods were similar. Therefore, the estimated thresholds of 6–10 cases in a day, per 10,000,000 people could be used to detect pertussis outbreaks and epidemics by health policymakers.</p></sec>
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Burden of pertussis in infants in the Eastern Mediterranean Region and the impact of maternal vaccination: a systematic review Randa K. Saad, Yousef Khader, Flor M. Munoz, Faris Lami, Ezzeddine Mohsni, Nadine Haddad BMC Public Health.2025;[Epub] CrossRef
Pertussis resurgence in iran: A systematic review and meta-analysis of seroimmunity and diagnostic evidence Parvaneh Sadeghimoghadam, Reza Sattarpour, Maryam Noori, Nasim Sattarpour, Ali Afkhaminia, Zeinab Sinaeifar, Amir Naddaf, Zahra Omidi BMC Infectious Diseases.2025;[Epub] CrossRef
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<sec><title>Objectives</title>
<p>In this pandemic situation caused by a novel coronavirus disease in 2019 (COVID-19), an electronic support system that can rapidly and accurately perform epidemic investigations, is needed. It would systematically secure and analyze patients’ data (who have been confirmed to have the infection), location information, and credit card usage.</p></sec>
<sec><title>Methods</title>
<p>The “Infectious Disease Prevention and Control Act” in South Korea, established a legal basis for the securement, handling procedure, and disclosure of information required for epidemic investigations. The Epidemic Investigation Support System (EISS) was developed as an application platform on the Smart City data platform.</p></sec>
<sec><title>Results</title>
<p>The EISS performed the function of inter-institutional communication which reduced the processing period of patients’ data in comparison to other methods. This system automatically marked confirmed cases’ tracking data on a map and hot-spot analysis which lead to the prediction of areas where people may be vulnerable to infection.</p></sec>
<sec><title>Conclusion</title>
<p>The EISS was designed and implemented for use during an epidemic investigation to prevent the spread of an infectious disease, by specifically tracking confirmed cases of infection.</p></sec>
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Norovirus GII.4 is recognized as a worldwide cause of nonbacterial outbreaks. In particular, the GII.4 variant occurs every 2–3 years according to antigenic variation. The aim of our study was to identify GII.4 variants in outbreaks in Korea during 2004–2012. Partial VP1 sequence of norovirus GII.4-related outbreaks during 2004–2012 was analyzed. The partial VP1 sequence was detected with reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction, seminested polymerase chain reaction, and nucleotide sequence of 312-314 base pairs for phylogenetic comparison. Nine variants emerged in outbreaks, with the Sydney variant showing predominance recently. This predominance may persist for at least 3 years, although new variants may appear in Korea.
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Objective
To analyze the incidence of obesity in adults aged 19–59 years in Korea and predict its trend in the future. Methods
We considered a two-compartmental deterministic mathematical model Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS), a system of difference equations, to predict the evolution of obesity in the population and to propose strategies to reduce its incidence. Results
The prevention strategy on normal-weight individuals produced a greater improvement than that produced by treatment strategies. Conclusions
Mathematical model sensitivity analysis suggests that obesity prevention strategies are more effective than obesity treatment strategies in controlling the increase of adult obesity in Korea.
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