Osong Public Health and Research Perspectives

Original Articles

Data Fitting and Scenario Analysis of Vaccination in the 2014 Ebola Outbreak in Liberia: Zhifu Xie; Osong Public Health Res Perspect. 2019;10(3):187-201. Published online June 30, 2019; DOI: https://doi.org/10.24171/j.phrp.2019.10.3.10

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Objectives

This study aimed to extend an epidemiological model (SEIHFR) to analyze epidemic trends, and evaluate intervention efficacy.

Methods

SEIHFR was modified to examine disease transmission dynamics after vaccination for the Ebola outbreak. Using existing data from Liberia, sensitivity analysis of various epidemic scenarios was used to inform the model structure, estimate the basic reproduction number ℜ₀ and investigate how the vaccination could effectively change the course of the epidemic.

Results

If a randomized mass vaccination strategy was adopted, vaccines would be administered prophylactically or as early as possible (depending on the availability of vaccines). An effective vaccination rate threshold for Liberia was estimated as 48.74% among susceptible individuals. If a ring vaccination strategy was adopted to control the spread of the Ebola virus, vaccines would be given to reduce the transmission rate improving the tracing rate of the contact persons of an infected individual.

Conclusion

The extended SEIHFR model predicted the total number of infected cases, number of deaths, number of recoveries, and duration of outbreaks among others with different levels of interventions such as vaccination rate. This model may be used to better understand the spread of Ebola and develop strategies that may achieve a disease-free state.

Citations

Citations to this article as recorded by

A secure data fitting scheme based on CKKS homomorphic encryption for medical IoT
Yunxuan Su, Xu An Wang, Weidong Du, Yu Ge, Kaiyang Zhao, Ming Lv
Journal of High Speed Networks.2023; 29(1): 41. CrossRef
Risk-averse multi-stage stochastic programming to optimizing vaccine allocation and treatment logistics for effective epidemic response
Xuecheng Yin, İ Esra Büyüktahtakın
IISE Transactions on Healthcare Systems Engineerin.2022; 12(1): 52. CrossRef
Model-based evaluation of the impact of prophylactic vaccination applied to Ebola epidemics in Sierra Leone and Democratic Republic of Congo
Ravi Potluri, Amit Kumar, Valérie Oriol-mathieu, Thierry Van Effelterre, Laurent Metz, Hitesh Bhandari
BMC Infectious Diseases.2022;[Epub] CrossRef
A hybrid simulation model to study the impact of combined interventions on Ebola epidemic
Peiyu Chen, Wenhui Fan, Xudong Guo, Constantinos Siettos
PLOS ONE.2021; 16(7): e0254044. CrossRef
Transmission dynamics of the COVID‐19 outbreak and effectiveness of government interventions: A data‐driven analysis
Yaqing Fang, Yiting Nie, Marshare Penny
Journal of Medical Virology.2020; 92(6): 645. CrossRef
Impact of prophylactic vaccination strategies on Ebola virus transmission: A modeling analysis
Ravi Potluri, Amit Kumar, Vikalp Maheshwari, Charlie Smith, Valerie Oriol Mathieu, Kerstin Luhn, Benoit Callendret, Hitesh Bhandari, Malaya Kumar Sahoo
PLOS ONE.2020; 15(4): e0230406. CrossRef
Modeling the 2014–2015 Ebola Virus Disease Outbreaks in Sierra Leone, Guinea, and Liberia with Effect of High- and Low-risk Susceptible Individuals
Qianying Lin, Salihu S. Musa, Shi Zhao, Daihai He
Bulletin of Mathematical Biology.2020;[Epub] CrossRef

Effects of Timely Control Intervention on the Spread of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus Infection: Ilsu Choi, Dong Ho Lee, Yongkuk Kim; Osong Public Health Res Perspect. 2017;8(6):373-376. Published online December 31, 2017; DOI: https://doi.org/10.24171/j.phrp.2017.8.6.03

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1 Citations

Abstract PDF

Objectives

The 2015 Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) outbreak in Korea caused major economic and social problems. The control intervention was conducted during the MERS-CoV outbreak in Korea immediately after the confirmation of the index case. This study investigates whether the early risk communication with the general public and mass media is an effective preventive strategy.

Methods

The SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, Recovered) model with estimated parameters for the time series data of the daily MERS-CoV incidence in Korea was considered from May to December 2015. For 10,000 stochastic simulations, the SEIR model was computed using the Gillespie algorithm. Depending on the time of control intervention on the 20th, 40th, and 60th days after the identification of the index case, the box plots of MERS-CoV incidences in Korea were computed, and the results were analyzed via ANOVA.

Results

The box plots showed that there was a significant difference between the non-intervention and intervention groups (the 20th day, 40th day, and 60th day groups) and seemed to show no significant difference based on the time of intervention. However, the ANOVA revealed that early intervention was a good strategy to control the disease.

Conclusion

Appropriate risk communication can secure the confidence of the general public in the public health authorities.

Citations

Citations to this article as recorded by

Healthcare-associated infections: the hallmark of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus with review of the literature
J.A. Al-Tawfiq, P.G. Auwaerter
Journal of Hospital Infection.2019; 101(1): 20. CrossRef

The Characteristics of Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus Transmission Dynamics in South Korea: Yunhwan Kim, Sunmi Lee, Chaeshin Chu, Seoyun Choe, Saeme Hong, Youngseo Shin; Osong Public Health Res Perspect. 2016;7(1):49-55. Published online February 28, 2016; DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.phrp.2016.01.001

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25 Download
67 Citations

Abstract PDF

Objectives
The outbreak of Middle Eastern respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) was one of the major events in South Korea in 2015. In particular, this study pays attention to formulating a mathematical model for MERS transmission dynamics and estimating transmission rates.
Methods
Incidence data of MERS-CoV from the government authority was analyzed for the first aim and a mathematical model was built and analyzed for the second aim of the study. A mathematical model for MERS-CoV transmission dynamics is used to estimate the transmission rates in two periods due to the implementation of intensive interventions.
Results
Using the estimates of the transmission rates, the basic reproduction number was estimated in two periods. Due to the superspreader, the basic reproduction number was very large in the first period; however, the basic reproduction number of the second period has reduced significantly after intensive interventions.
Conclusion
It turned out to be the intensive isolation and quarantine interventions that were the most critical factors that prevented the spread of the MERS outbreak. The results are expected to be useful to devise more efficient intervention strategies in the future.

Citations

Citations to this article as recorded by

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Predictive Modeling and Control Strategies for the Transmission of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus
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LEI ZHANG, TAREQ SAEED, MIAO-KUN WANG, NUDRAT AAMIR, MUHAMMAD IBRAHIM
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Dynamics of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) involving fractional derivative with Mittag-Leffler kernel
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Travel Medicine and Infectious Disease.2021; 43: 102118. CrossRef
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Superspreading and heterogeneity in transmission of SARS, MERS, and COVID-19: A systematic review
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Computational and Structural Biotechnology Journal.2021; 19: 5039. CrossRef
Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus
Jaffar A. Al-Tawfiq, Esam I. Azhar, Ziad A. Memish, Alimuddin Zumla
Seminars in Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine.2021; 42(06): 828. CrossRef
Early warning signal reliability varies with COVID-19 waves
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Healthcare.2020; 8(2): 99. CrossRef
Super-spreading events and contribution to transmission of MERS, SARS, and SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19)
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Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine.2020; 2020: 1. CrossRef
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Shabir Ahmad, Aman Ullah, Qasem M. Al-Mdallal, Hasib Khan, Kamal Shah, Aziz Khan
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Exploration of Superspreading Events in 2015 MERS-CoV Outbreak in Korea by Branching Process Models
Seoyun Choe, Hee-Sung Kim, Sunmi Lee
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Ahmad Sedaghat, Amir Mosavi
SSRN Electronic Journal .2020;[Epub] CrossRef
Comparative Analysis of Eleven Healthcare-Associated Outbreaks of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (Mers-Cov) from 2015 to 2017
Sibylle Bernard-Stoecklin, Birgit Nikolay, Abdullah Assiri, Abdul Aziz Bin Saeed, Peter Karim Ben Embarek, Hassan El Bushra, Moran Ki, Mamunur Rahman Malik, Arnaud Fontanet, Simon Cauchemez, Maria D. Van Kerkhove
Scientific Reports.2019;[Epub] CrossRef
Development of a recombinant replication-deficient rabies virus-based bivalent-vaccine against MERS-CoV and rabies virus and its humoral immunogenicity in mice
Hirofumi Kato, Mutsuyo Takayama-Ito, Itoe Iizuka-Shiota, Shuetsu Fukushi, Guillermo Posadas-Herrera, Madoka Horiya, Masaaki Satoh, Tomoki Yoshikawa, Souichi Yamada, Shizuko Harada, Hikaru Fujii, Miho Shibamura, Takuya Inagaki, Kinjiro Morimoto, Masayuki S
PLOS ONE.2019; 14(10): e0223684. CrossRef
Healthcare-associated infections: the hallmark of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus with review of the literature
J.A. Al-Tawfiq, P.G. Auwaerter
Journal of Hospital Infection.2019; 101(1): 20. CrossRef
Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus in pediatrics: a report of seven cases from Saudi Arabia
Sarah H. Alfaraj, Jaffar A. Al-Tawfiq, Talal A. Altuwaijri, Ziad A. Memish
Frontiers of Medicine.2019; 13(1): 126. CrossRef
Asymptomatic Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) infection: Extent and implications for infection control: A systematic review
Jaffar A. Al-Tawfiq, Philippe Gautret
Travel Medicine and Infectious Disease.2019; 27: 27. CrossRef
Clinical predictors of mortality of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) infection: A cohort study
Sarah H. Alfaraj, Jaffar A. Al-Tawfiq, Ayed Y. Assiri, Nojoom A. Alzahrani, Amal A. Alanazi, Ziad A. Memish
Travel Medicine and Infectious Disease.2019; 29: 48. CrossRef
Practical Guidance for Clinical Microbiology Laboratories: Viruses Causing Acute Respiratory Tract Infections
Carmen L. Charlton, Esther Babady, Christine C. Ginocchio, Todd F. Hatchette, Robert C. Jerris, Yan Li, Mike Loeffelholz, Yvette S. McCarter, Melissa B. Miller, Susan Novak-Weekley, Audrey N. Schuetz, Yi-Wei Tang, Ray Widen, Steven J. Drews
Clinical Microbiology Reviews.2018;[Epub] CrossRef
Agent-Based Modeling for Super-Spreading Events: A Case Study of MERS-CoV Transmission Dynamics in the Republic of Korea
Yunhwan Kim, Hohyung Ryu, Sunmi Lee
International Journal of Environmental Research an.2018; 15(11): 2369. CrossRef
Evaluation of visual triage for screening of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus patients
S.H. Alfaraj, J.A. Al-Tawfiq, P. Gautret, M.G. Alenazi, A.Y. Asiri, Z.A. Memish
New Microbes and New Infections.2018; 26: 49. CrossRef
A multi-faceted approach of a nursing led education in response to MERS-CoV infection
Jaffar A. Al-Tawfiq, Siobhan Rothwell, Heather A. Mcgregor, Zeina A. Khouri
Journal of Infection and Public Health.2018; 11(2): 260. CrossRef
MERS transmission and risk factors: a systematic review
Ji-Eun Park, Soyoung Jung, Aeran Kim, Ji-Eun Park
BMC Public Health.2018;[Epub] CrossRef
Working experiences of nurses during the Middle East respiratory syndrome outbreak
Hee Sun Kang, Ye Dong Son, Sun‐Mi Chae, Colleen Corte
International Journal of Nursing Practice.2018;[Epub] CrossRef
Disaster medicine: current status and future directions of emergency medical team for overseas disaster crisis
Minhong Choa, Jiyoung Noh, Hyun Soo Chung
Journal of the Korean Medical Association.2017; 60(2): 149. CrossRef
Estimating and modelling the transmissibility of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome CoronaVirus during the 2015 outbreak in the Republic of Korea
Xu‐Sheng Zhang, Richard Pebody, Andre Charlett, Daniela de Angelis, Paul Birrell, Hunseok Kang, Marc Baguelin, Yoon Hong Choi
Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses.2017; 11(5): 434. CrossRef
Influenza is more common than Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) among hospitalized adult Saudi patients
Jaffar A. Al-Tawfiq, Ali A. Rabaan, Kareem Hinedi
Travel Medicine and Infectious Disease.2017; 20: 56. CrossRef
Dynamics of scientific publications on the MERS-CoV outbreaks in Saudi Arabia
Ali A. Rabaan, Shamsah H. Al-Ahmed, Ali M. Bazzi, Jaffar A. Al-Tawfiq
Journal of Infection and Public Health.2017; 10(6): 702. CrossRef
Effects of Timely Control Intervention on the Spread of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus Infection
Ilsu Choi, Dong Ho Lee, Yongkuk Kim
Osong Public Health and Research Perspectives.2017; 8(6): 373. CrossRef
Serologic responses of 42 MERS-coronavirus-infected patients according to the disease severity
Jae-Hoon Ko, Marcel A. Müller, Hyeri Seok, Ga Eun Park, Ji Yeon Lee, Sun Young Cho, Young Eun Ha, Jin Yang Baek, So Hyun Kim, Ji-Man Kang, Yae-Jean Kim, Ik Joon Jo, Chi Ryang Chung, Myong-Joon Hahn, Christian Drosten, Cheol-In Kang, Doo Ryeon Chung, Jae-H
Diagnostic Microbiology and Infectious Disease.2017; 89(2): 106. CrossRef
Predictive factors for pneumonia development and progression to respiratory failure in MERS-CoV infected patients
Jae-Hoon Ko, Ga Eun Park, Ji Yeon Lee, Ji Yong Lee, Sun Young Cho, Young Eun Ha, Cheol-In Kang, Ji-Man Kang, Yae-Jean Kim, Hee Jae Huh, Chang-Seok Ki, Byeong-Ho Jeong, Jinkyeong Park, Chi Ryang Chung, Doo Ryeon Chung, Jae-Hoon Song, Kyong Ran Peck
Journal of Infection.2016; 73(5): 468. CrossRef
Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus disease is rare in children: An update from Saudi Arabia
Jaffar A Al-Tawfiq, Rana F Kattan, Ziad A Memish
World Journal of Clinical Pediatrics.2016; 5(4): 391. CrossRef

Optimal Implementation of Intervention Strategies for Elderly People with Ludomania: Byul Nim Kim, M.A. Masud, Yongkuk Kim; Osong Public Health Res Perspect. 2014;5(5):266-273. Published online October 31, 2014; DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.phrp.2014.08.006

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18 Download
1 Citations

Abstract PDF

Objectives
Now-a-days gambling is growing especially fast among older adults. To control the gratuitous growth of gambling, well-analyzed scientific strategies are necessary. We tried to analyze the adequacy of the health of society mathematically through immediate treatment of patients with early prevention.
Methods
The model from Lee and Do was modified and control parameters were introduced. Pontryagin's Maximum Principle was used to obtain an optimal control strategy.
Results
Optimal control can be achieved through simultaneous use of the control parameters, though it varies from society to society. The control corresponding to prevention needed to be implemented in full almost all the time for all types of societies. In the case of the other two controls, the scenario was greatly affected depending on the types of societies.
Conclusion
Prevention and treatment for elderly people with ludomania are the main intervention strategies. We found that optimal timely implementation of the intervention strategies was more effective. The optimal control strategy varied with the initial number of gamblers. However, three intervention strategies were considered, among which, preventing people from engaging in all types of gambling proved to be the most crucial.

Citations

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Roll the Dice
Hae-Wol Cho, Chaeshin Chu
Osong Public Health and Research Perspectives.2014; 5(5): 243. CrossRef

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