Objectives
We characterized and assessed public health measures, including intensive vaccination and antiviral treatment, implemented during the 2009 influenza pandemic in the Republic of Korea. Methods
A mathematical model for the 2009 influenza pandemic is formulated. The transmission rate, the vaccination rate, the antiviral treatment rate, and the hospitalized rate are estimated using the least-squares method for the 2009 data of the incidence curves of the infected, vaccinated, treated, and hospitalized. Results
The cumulative number of infected cases has reduced significantly following the implementation of the intensive vaccination and antiviral treatment. In particular, the intensive vaccination was the most critical factor that prevented severe outbreak. Conclusion
We have found that the total infected proportion would increase by approximately six times under the half of vaccination rates.
Citations
Citations to this article as recorded by
Modeling influenza transmission dynamics with media coverage data of the 2009 H1N1 outbreak in Korea Yunhwan Kim, Ana Vivas Barber, Sunmi Lee, Roberto Barrio PLOS ONE.2020; 15(6): e0232580. CrossRef
Doing Mathematics with Aftermath of Pandemic Influenza 2009 Hae-Wol Cho, Chaeshin Chu Osong Public Health and Research Perspectives.2015; 6(1): 1. CrossRef
Objectives
It is critical to implement effective multiple countermeasures to mitigate or retain the spread of pandemic influenza. We propose a mathematical pandemic influenza model to assess the effectiveness of multiple countermeasures implemented in 2009. Methods
Age-specific parameters, including the transmission rate, the proportion of asymptomatic individuals, the vaccination rate, the social distancing rate, and the antiviral treatment rate are estimated using the least-square method calibrated to the incidence data. Results
The multiple interventions (intensive vaccination, social distancing, antivrial treatment) were successfully implemented resulting in the dramatic reduction in the total number of incidence. Conclusion
The model output is sensitive to age-specific parameters and this leads to the fact that a more elaborate age group model should be developed and extensive further studies must be followed.