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This study aimed to extend an epidemiological model (SEIHFR) to analyze epidemic trends, and evaluate intervention efficacy.
SEIHFR was modified to examine disease transmission dynamics after vaccination for the Ebola outbreak. Using existing data from Liberia, sensitivity analysis of various epidemic scenarios was used to inform the model structure, estimate the basic reproduction number ℜ0 and investigate how the vaccination could effectively change the course of the epidemic.
If a randomized mass vaccination strategy was adopted, vaccines would be administered prophylactically or as early as possible (depending on the availability of vaccines). An effective vaccination rate threshold for Liberia was estimated as 48.74% among susceptible individuals. If a ring vaccination strategy was adopted to control the spread of the Ebola virus, vaccines would be given to reduce the transmission rate improving the tracing rate of the contact persons of an infected individual.
The extended SEIHFR model predicted the total number of infected cases, number of deaths, number of recoveries, and duration of outbreaks among others with different levels of interventions such as vaccination rate. This model may be used to better understand the spread of Ebola and develop strategies that may achieve a disease-free state.
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The Japanese encephalitis (JE) vaccine was introduced to the national immunization program in 1985, which has led to a dramatic decrease in the number of reported cases, but JE continues to occur in foreign nationals residing in or traveling to Korea. Although the incidence is low, this study demonstrated that more Koreans were infected with JE than foreign-born expatriates. The incidence rates of Korean-born nationals were between 0.01 and 0.08 cases per 100,000. In contrast, the incidence rates of foreign-born nationals ranged between 0 and 0.26 cases per 100,000. The incidence rates clearly showed that foreign-born expatriates were more at risk, which underscores the importance of vaccination. We recommend heightened surveillance among JE-susceptible individuals and promote vaccination among foreign-born nationals living in Korea.
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