Osong Public Health and Research Perspectives

Original Articles

Effects of Timely Control Intervention on the Spread of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus Infection: Ilsu Choi, Dong Ho Lee, Yongkuk Kim; Osong Public Health Res Perspect. 2017;8(6):373-376. Published online December 31, 2017; DOI: https://doi.org/10.24171/j.phrp.2017.8.6.03

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Abstract PDF: Objectives
The 2015 Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) outbreak in Korea caused major economic and social problems. The control intervention was conducted during the MERS-CoV outbreak in Korea immediately after the confirmation of the index case. This study investigates whether the early risk communication with the general public and mass media is an effective preventive strategy.
Methods
The SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, Recovered) model with estimated parameters for the time series data of the daily MERS-CoV incidence in Korea was considered from May to December 2015. For 10,000 stochastic simulations, the SEIR model was computed using the Gillespie algorithm. Depending on the time of control intervention on the 20th, 40th, and 60th days after the identification of the index case, the box plots of MERS-CoV incidences in Korea were computed, and the results were analyzed via ANOVA.
Results
The box plots showed that there was a significant difference between the non-intervention and intervention groups (the 20th day, 40th day, and 60th day groups) and seemed to show no significant difference based on the time of intervention. However, the ANOVA revealed that early intervention was a good strategy to control the disease.
Conclusion
Appropriate risk communication can secure the confidence of the general public in the public health authorities.

Optimal Implementation of Intervention to Control the Self-harm Epidemic: Byul Nim Kim, M.A. Masud, Yongkuk Kim; Osong Public Health Res Perspect. 2014;5(6):315-323. Published online December 31, 2014; DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.phrp.2014.10.001

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Abstract PDF: Objectives
Deliberate self-harm (DSH) of a young person has been a matter of growing concern to parents and policymakers. Prevention and early eradication are the main interventional techniques among which prevention through reducing peer pressure has a major role in reducing the DSH epidemic. Our aim is to develop an optimal control strategy for minimizing the DSH epidemic and to assess the efficacy of the controls.
Methods
We considered a deterministic compartmental model of the DSH epidemic and two interventional techniques as the control measures. Pontryagin's Maximum Principle was used to mathematically derive the optimal controls. We also simulated the model using the forward-backward sweep method.
Results
Simulation results showed that the controls needed to be used simultaneously to reduce DSH successfully. An optimal control strategy should be adopted, depending on implementation costs for the controls.
Conclusion
The long-term success of the optimum control depends on the implementation cost. If the cost is very high, the control could be used for a short term, even though it fails in the long run. The control strategy, most importantly, should be implemented as early as possible to attack a comparatively fewer number of addicted individuals.

Optimal Implementation of Intervention Strategies for Elderly People with Ludomania: Byul Nim Kim, M.A. Masud, Yongkuk Kim; Osong Public Health Res Perspect. 2014;5(5):266-273. Published online October 31, 2014; DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.phrp.2014.08.006

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Abstract PDF: Objectives
Now-a-days gambling is growing especially fast among older adults. To control the gratuitous growth of gambling, well-analyzed scientific strategies are necessary. We tried to analyze the adequacy of the health of society mathematically through immediate treatment of patients with early prevention.
Methods
The model from Lee and Do was modified and control parameters were introduced. Pontryagin's Maximum Principle was used to obtain an optimal control strategy.
Results
Optimal control can be achieved through simultaneous use of the control parameters, though it varies from society to society. The control corresponding to prevention needed to be implemented in full almost all the time for all types of societies. In the case of the other two controls, the scenario was greatly affected depending on the types of societies.
Conclusion
Prevention and treatment for elderly people with ludomania are the main intervention strategies. We found that optimal timely implementation of the intervention strategies was more effective. The optimal control strategy varied with the initial number of gamblers. However, three intervention strategies were considered, among which, preventing people from engaging in all types of gambling proved to be the most crucial.

Articles

Optimal Control Strategy of Plasmodium vivax Malaria Transmission in Korea: Byul Nim Kim, Kyeongah Nah, Chaeshin Chu, Sang Uk Ryu, Yong Han Kang, Yongkuk Kim; Osong Public Health Res Perspect. 2012;3(3):128-136. Published online June 30, 2012; DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.phrp.2012.07.005

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10 Citations

Abstract PDF: Objective To investigate the optimal control strategy for Plasmodium vivax malaria transmission in Korea.
Methods
A Plasmodium vivax malaria transmission model with optimal control terms using a deterministic system of differential equations is presented, and analyzed mathematically and numerically.
Results
If the cost of reducing the reproduction rate of the mosquito population is more than that of prevention measures to minimize mosquito-human contacts, the control of mosquito-human contacts needs to be taken for a longer time, comparing the other situations. More knowledge about the actual effectiveness and costs of control intervention measures would give more realistic control strategies.
Conclusion
Mathematical model and numerical simulations suggest that the use of mosquito-reduction strategies is more effective than personal protection in some cases but not always.

Original Articles

A Note on Obesity as Epidemic in Korea: Mun Seok Kim, Chaeshin Chu, Yongkuk Kim; Osong Public Health Res Perspect. 2011;2(2):135-140. Published online June 30, 2011; DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.phrp.2011.08.004

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Abstract PDF: Objective To analyze the incidence of obesity in adults aged 19–59 years in Korea and predict its trend in the future.
Methods
We considered a two-compartmental deterministic mathematical model Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS), a system of difference equations, to predict the evolution of obesity in the population and to propose strategies to reduce its incidence.
Results
The prevention strategy on normal-weight individuals produced a greater improvement than that produced by treatment strategies.
Conclusions
Mathematical model sensitivity analysis suggests that obesity prevention strategies are more effective than obesity treatment strategies in controlling the increase of adult obesity in Korea.

Mathematical Modeling of Vibrio vulnificus Infection in Korea and the Influence of Global Warming: Chaeshin Chu, Younghae Do, Yongkuk Kim, Yasuhisa Saito, Sun-Dong Lee, Haemo Park, Jong-Koo Lee; Osong Public Health Res Perspect. 2011;2(1):51-58. Published online June 30, 2011; DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.phrp.2011.05.002

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Abstract PDF: Objectives
To investigate the possible link between Vibrio vulnificus population size in seawater and water temperature.
Methods
We collected incidence and water temperature data in coastal regions of Korea and constructed a mathematical model that consisted of three classes; susceptible fish, infected fish available to humans, and infected humans.
Results
We developed a mathematical model to connect V. vulnificus incidence with water temperature using estimated bacterial population sizes and actual coastal water temperatures.
Conclusion
Increased V. vulnificus population sizes in marine environments may increase the risk of infection in people who eat at coastal restaurants in Korea. Furthermore, we estimated the near-future number of infected patients using our model, which will help to establish a public-health policy to reduce the disease burden.

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