Objectives
To investigate the possible link between <i>Vibrio vulnificus</i> population size in seawater and water temperature. Methods
We collected incidence and water temperature data in coastal regions of Korea and constructed a mathematical model that consisted of three classes; susceptible fish, infected fish available to humans, and infected humans. Results
We developed a mathematical model to connect <i>V. vulnificus</i> incidence with water temperature using estimated bacterial population sizes and actual coastal water temperatures. Conclusion
Increased <i>V. vulnificus</i> population sizes in marine environments may increase the risk of infection in people who eat at coastal restaurants in Korea. Furthermore, we estimated the near-future number of infected patients using our model, which will help to establish a public-health policy to reduce the disease burden.
Citations
Citations to this article as recorded by
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