Skip Navigation
Skip to contents

PHRP : Osong Public Health and Research Perspectives

OPEN ACCESS
SEARCH
Search

Search

Page Path
HOME > Search
1 "Ilsu Choi"
Filter
Filter
Article category
Keywords
Publication year
Authors
Original Article
Effects of Timely Control Intervention on the Spread of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus Infection
Ilsu Choi, Dong Ho Lee, Yongkuk Kim
Osong Public Health Res Perspect. 2017;8(6):373-376.   Published online December 31, 2017
DOI: https://doi.org/10.24171/j.phrp.2017.8.6.03
  • 2,686 View
  • 26 Download
  • 1 Citations
AbstractAbstract PDF
Objectives

The 2015 Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) outbreak in Korea caused major economic and social problems. The control intervention was conducted during the MERS-CoV outbreak in Korea immediately after the confirmation of the index case. This study investigates whether the early risk communication with the general public and mass media is an effective preventive strategy.

Methods

The SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, Recovered) model with estimated parameters for the time series data of the daily MERS-CoV incidence in Korea was considered from May to December 2015. For 10,000 stochastic simulations, the SEIR model was computed using the Gillespie algorithm. Depending on the time of control intervention on the 20th, 40th, and 60th days after the identification of the index case, the box plots of MERS-CoV incidences in Korea were computed, and the results were analyzed via ANOVA.

Results

The box plots showed that there was a significant difference between the non-intervention and intervention groups (the 20th day, 40th day, and 60th day groups) and seemed to show no significant difference based on the time of intervention. However, the ANOVA revealed that early intervention was a good strategy to control the disease.

Conclusion

Appropriate risk communication can secure the confidence of the general public in the public health authorities.


PHRP : Osong Public Health and Research Perspectives