Osong Public Health and Research Perspectives

Volume 4(6); December 2013

Editorial

What is Next for HIV/AIDS in Korea?: Hae-Wol Cho, Chaeshin Chu; Osong Public Health Res Perspect. 2013;4(6):291-292. Published online December 31, 2013; DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.phrp.2013.11.001

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A Korean Post-Marketing Study of Abacavir/Dolutegravir/Lamivudine in Patients with HIV-1
Sang-Kyu Shin, Jung-Eun Cho, Eun-Bin Lee, Yeon-Sook Kim, Sook-In Jung
Infection & Chemotherapy.2023; 55(3): 337. CrossRef

Original Articles

Proteomic Analysis of Intracellular and Membrane Proteins From Voriconazole-Resistant Candida glabrata: Jae Il Yoo, Hwa Su Kim, Chi Won Choi, Jung Sik Yoo, Jae Yon Yu, Yeong Seon Lee; Osong Public Health Res Perspect. 2013;4(6):293-300. Published online December 31, 2013; DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.phrp.2013.10.001

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Objectives
The proteomic analysis of voriconazole resistant Candida glabrata strain has not yet been investigated. In this study, differentially expressed proteins of intracellular and membrane fraction from voriconazole-susceptible, susceptible dose-dependent (S-DD), resistant C. glabrata strains were compared with each other and several proteins were identified.
Methods
The proteins of intracellular and membrane were isolated by disrupting cells with glass bead and centrifugation from voriconazole susceptible, S-DD, and resistant C. glabrata strains. The abundance of expressed proteins was compared using two-dimensional sodium dodecyl sulfate polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis and proteins showing continuous twofold or more increase or reduction of expression in resistant strains compared to susceptible and S-DD strain were analyzed by liquid chromatography/mass spectrometry-mass spectrometry method.
Results
Of 34 intracellular proteins, 15 proteins showed expression increase or reduction (twofold or more). The identified proteins included regulation, energy production, carbohydrate transport, amino acid transport, and various metabolism related proteins. The increase of expression of heat shock protein 70 was found. Among membrane proteins, 12, 31 proteins showed expression increase or decrease in the order of susceptible, S-DD, and resistant strains. This expression included carbohydrate metabolism, amino acid synthesis, and response to stress-related proteins. In membrane fractions, the change of expression of 10 heat shock proteins was observed, and 9 heat shock protein 70 (Hsp70) showed the reduction of expression.
Conclusion
The expression of Hsp70 protein in membrane fraction is related to voriconazole resistant C. glabrata strains.

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What ‘Omics can tell us about antifungal adaptation
Gabriela Fior Ribeiro, Eszter Denes, Helen Heaney, Delma S Childers
FEMS Yeast Research.2022;[Epub] CrossRef
Effects of antifungal agents on the fungal proteome: informing on mechanisms of sensitivity and resistance
Rebecca A. Owens, Sean Doyle
Expert Review of Proteomics.2021; 18(3): 185. CrossRef
HPLC-MS identification and expression of Candida drug-resistance proteins from African HIV-infected patients
Pedro M D S Abrantes, Randall Fisher, Patrick J D Bouic, Carole P McArthur, Burtram C Fielding, Charlene W J Africa
AIMS Microbiology.2021; 7(3): 320. CrossRef

Lon Mutant of Brucella abortus Induces Tumor Necrosis Factor-Alpha in Murine J774.A1 Macrophage: Sungdo Park, Young-Sill Choi, Sang-Hee Park, Young-Rok Kim, Hyuk Chu, Kyu-Jam Hwang, Mi-Yeoun Park; Osong Public Health Res Perspect. 2013;4(6):301-307. Published online December 31, 2013; DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.phrp.2013.10.002

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Objectives
The objective of this study was to isolate a Brucella lon mutant and to analyze the cytokine response of B. lon mutant during macrophage infection.
Methods
A wild-type Brucella abortus strain was mutagenized by Tn5 transposition. From the mouse macrophage J774.A1 cells, total RNA was isolated at 0 hours, 6 hours, 12 hours, and 24 hours after infection with Brucella. Using mouse cytokine microarrays, we measured transcriptional levels of the cytokine response, and validated our results with a reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) assay to confirm the induction of cytokine messenger RNA (mRNA).
Results
In host J774.A1 macrophages, mRNA levels of T helper 1 (Th1)-type cytokines, including tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-α), interferon-gamma (IFN-γ), interleukin-2 (IL-2), and IL-3, were significantly higher in the lon mutant compared to wild-type Brucella and the negative control. TNF-α levels in cell culture media were induced as high as 2 μg/mL after infection with the lon mutant, a greater than sixfold change.
Conclusion
In order to understand the role of the lon protein in virulence, we identified and characterized a novel B. lon mutant. We compared the immune response it generates to the wild-type Brucella response in a mouse macrophage cell line. We demonstrated that the B. lon mutants induce TNF-α expression from the host J774.A1 macrophage.

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Structure, Substrate Specificity and Role of Lon Protease in Bacterial Pathogenesis and Survival
Perumalraja Kirthika, Khristine Kaith Sison Lloren, Vijayakumar Jawalagatti, John Hwa Lee
International Journal of Molecular Sciences.2023; 24(4): 3422. CrossRef
ClpP protease modulates bacterial growth, stress response, and bacterial virulence in Brucella abortus
Dongjie Sun, Yufu Liu, Xiaowei Peng, Hao Dong, Hui Jiang, Xuezheng Fan, Yu Feng, Jiali Sun, Kun Han, Qiang Gao, Jianrui Niu, Jiabo Ding
Veterinary Research.2023;[Epub] CrossRef
Brucella abortus Encodes an Active Rhomboid Protease: Proteome Response after Rhomboid Gene Deletion
María Inés Marchesini, Ansgar Poetsch, Leticia Soledad Guidolín, Diego J. Comerci
Microorganisms.2022; 10(1): 114. CrossRef
Proteomics of Brucella
Ansgar Poetsch, María Inés Marchesini
Proteomes.2020; 8(2): 8. CrossRef
Outer Membrane Vesicles From Brucella melitensis Modulate Immune Response and Induce Cytoskeleton Rearrangement in Peripheral Blood Mononuclear Cells
Eric Daniel Avila-Calderón, Olín Medina-Chávez, Leopoldo Flores-Romo, José Manuel Hernández-Hernández, Luis Donis-Maturano, Ahidé López-Merino, Beatriz Arellano-Reynoso, Ma. Guadalupe Aguilera-Arreola, Enrico A. Ruiz, Zulema Gomez-Lunar, Sharon Witonsky,
Frontiers in Microbiology.2020;[Epub] CrossRef
RNA-seq reveals the critical role of Lon protease in stress response and Brucella virulence
Yufu Liu, Hao Dong, Xiaowei Peng, Qiang Gao, Hui Jiang, Guanlong Xu, Yuming Qin, Jianrui Niu, Shijing Sun, Peng Li, Jiabo Ding, Ruiai Chen
Microbial Pathogenesis.2019; 130: 112. CrossRef
Brucella Downregulates Tumor Necrosis Factor-α to Promote Intracellular Survival via Omp25 Regulation of Different MicroRNAs in Porcine and Murine Macrophages
Xiaomao Luo, Xiujuan Zhang, Xingchen Wu, Xuefeng Yang, Cong Han, Zhengyu Wang, Qian Du, Xiaomin Zhao, Shan-Lu Liu, Dewen Tong, Yong Huang
Frontiers in Immunology.2018;[Epub] CrossRef

A Study on the Public-Private Partnership to Global Health Issues in Korea: Hyun Sook Lee; Osong Public Health Res Perspect. 2013;4(6):308-315. Published online December 31, 2013; DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.phrp.2013.10.003

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Abstract PDF

Objectives
To find the fit that is most apt for the current situation in Korea and to find new ways of identifying potential partners for the purpose of public–private partnership (PPP). The research was conducted using domestic and international literature where the concept and definition of PPP was stated, and cases of PPP reported by the World Health Organization and cases in developed countries were investigated. Materials and methods Data were collected from 237 PPP potential partner organization, government agencies, and the government under a special law, local governments, businesses, hospitals, and private organizations through their internet webpage. The Delphi questionnaire was given to relevant institutions and questionnaire was surveyed general hospitals.
Results
Groups that were likely to realize most of the partnership were nonprofit or nongovernmental organizations, the central government, the private sector, public healthcare services, and products.
Conclusion
In order to secure the position of exceptional comparative advantage of international expertise in the field of healthcare, we must implement PPP strategy that is in ordinance of domestic situation.

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Şehir Hastanelerinin Misyon ve Vizyon Beyanlarının İçerik Analizi
Fatma YILDIRIM
Çankırı Karatekin Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Ens.2023; 14(1): 143. CrossRef
Exploring the interest of medical students in global health in South Korea: Does taking a global health course matter?
Jayoung Park, Jongnam Hwang, Yeji Lim, Jongho Heo, Woong-Han Kim
BMC Medical Education.2023;[Epub] CrossRef
Directions of Effective Interaction of the Subjects of Regional Policy in the Sphere of Health Care for the Purpose of Ensuring the Economic Security of the Regions
Natalya Krivenko
Living Standards of the Population in the Regions .2022; 18(3): 354. CrossRef
Possibilities for expanding the practice of public-private partnerships in Russian regional healthcare
N.V. Krivenko, A.V. Vasilieva, A.I. Tsvetkov
Profilakticheskaya meditsina.2021; 24(1): 17. CrossRef

Prevalent Multidrug-resistant Nonvaccine Serotypes in Pneumococcal Carriage of Healthy Korean Children Associated with the Low Coverage of the Seven-valent Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine: Sungkyoung Lee, Ji-Hye Kim, Seong-Han Kim, Misun Park, Songmee Bae; Osong Public Health Res Perspect. 2013;4(6):316-322. Published online December 31, 2013; DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.phrp.2013.10.004

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Abstract PDF

Objectives
Our previous longitudinal multicenter-based carriage study showed that the average carriage rate of Streptococcus pneumoniae was 16.8% in 582 healthy children attending kindergarten or elementary school in Seoul, Korea. We assessed serotype-specific prevalence and antimicrobial resistance among colonizing pneumococcal isolates from young children in the era of low use of the seven-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV7).
Methods
Serotypes were determined by an agglutination test with specific antisera or by a multiplex polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assay. An antimicrobial susceptibility test was performed with broth microdilution in Korean 96-well panels from Dade-MicroScan (Sacramento, CA, USA).
Results
Pneumococcal colonization patterns were dynamic and longterm persistent carriage was rare, which indicated a sequential turnover of pneumococcal strains. Of the 369 pneumococci (except for 23 killed isolates), 129 (34.9%) isolates were PCV7 vaccine serotypes (VTs); 213 (57.8%) isolates were nonvaccine serotypes (NVTs); and the remaining 27 (7.2%) isolates were nontypable (NT). The highest rates of multidrug resistance (MDR) were observed in VTs (86.0%; 111/129 isolates) and NVTs (70.0%; 149/213 isolates).
Conclusion
This study overall showed the frequent carriage of VTs and NVTs with MDR in healthy children attending kindergarten or elementary school. Efforts should be directed toward reducing the extensive prescription of antibiotics and using new broader vaccines to reduce the expansion of MDR strains of NVTs in our community.

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Characterization of Pneumococcal Colonization Dynamics and Antimicrobial Resistance Using Shotgun Metagenomic Sequencing in Intensively Sampled South African Infants
Rendani I. Manenzhe, Felix S. Dube, Meredith Wright, Katie Lennard, Stephanie Mounaud, Stephanie W. Lo, Heather J. Zar, William C. Nierman, Mark P. Nicol, Clinton Moodley
Frontiers in Public Health.2020;[Epub] CrossRef
Encouraging rational antibiotic use in childhood pneumonia: a focus on Vietnam and the Western Pacific Region
Nguyen T. K. Phuong, Tran T. Hoang, Pham H. Van, Lolyta Tu, Stephen M. Graham, Ben J. Marais
Pneumonia.2017;[Epub] CrossRef
Burden of bacterial upper respiratory tract pathogens in school children of Nepal
Sangita Thapa, Shishir Gokhale, Annavarapu Laxminarasimha Sharma, Lokendra Bahadur Sapkota, Shamshul Ansari, Rajendra Gautam, Sony Shrestha, Puja Neopane
BMJ Open Respiratory Research.2017; 4(1): e000203. CrossRef
Bacterial Density, Serotype Distribution and Antibiotic Resistance of Pneumococcal Strains from the Nasopharynx of Peruvian Children Before and After Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine 7
Christiane R. Hanke, Carlos G. Grijalva, Sopio Chochua, Mathias W. Pletz, Claudia Hornberg, Kathryn M. Edwards, Marie R. Griffin, Hector Verastegui, Ana I. Gil, Claudio F. Lanata, Keith P. Klugman, Jorge E. Vidal
Pediatric Infectious Disease Journal.2016; 35(4): 432. CrossRef

Generation and Characterization of Recombinant Influenza A(H1N1) Viruses Resistant to Neuraminidase Inhibitors: WooYoung Choi, Jin-Young Shin, Hwan-Eui Jeong, Mi-Jin Jeong, Su-Jin Kim, Joo-Yeon Lee, Chun Kang; Osong Public Health Res Perspect. 2013;4(6):323-328. Published online December 31, 2013; DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.phrp.2013.10.005

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Abstract PDF

Objectives
To examine the effect of neuraminidase (NA) mutations on the NA inhibitor (NAI) resistance phenotype, the recombinant influenza A/Chungbuk/4448/2008(H1N1) virus isolated in South Korea during the 2008–2009 season was generated by reverse genetics.
Methods
Site-directed mutagenesis was introduced on the NA gene of A/Chungbuk/4448/2008(H1N1) virus, and a total of 23 single, double, and triple mutants were generated. Resistance phenotype of these recombinant viruses was determined by NA-inhibition (NAI) assays based on a fluorometric method using two NAIs (oseltamivir and zanamivir).
Results
NA-inhibition assays showed that all the single and double mutants containing the Y275 except the single Y275-E119V mutant conferred important levels of resistance to oseltamivir, whereas all the single, double, and triple mutants containing the E119V mutation were associated with the resistance to zanamivir.
Conclusion
Considering the effect of mutations in NA gene on the resistance to NAIs, it is important to monitor the possible emergence and dissemination of multidrug-resistant variants in the human population due to amino acid changes at NA gene as well as to develop novel NAIs.

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Phylogenetic analysis and docking study of neuraminidase gene of influenza A/H1N1 viruses circulating in Iran from 2010 to 2019
Sina Moeini, Atefeh Mohebbi, Behrokh Farahmand, Parvaneh Mehrbod, Fatemeh Fotouhi
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SEQUENCE‐FREE PHYLOGENETICS WITH MASS SPECTROMETRY
Kevin M. Downard
Mass Spectrometry Reviews.2022; 41(1): 3. CrossRef
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Laura A.E. Van Poelvoorde, Xavier Saelens, Isabelle Thomas, Nancy H. Roosens
Trends in Biotechnology.2020; 38(4): 360. CrossRef
Mutation-induced spatial differences in neuraminidase structure and sensitivity to neuraminidase inhibitors
Zhi-wei Yang, Dong-xiao Hao, Yi-zhuo Che, Jia-hui Yang, Lei Zhang, Sheng-li Zhang
Chinese Physics B.2018; 27(1): 018704. CrossRef
Authorised medicinal product Aspecton® Oral Drops containing thyme extract KMTv24497 shows antiviral activity against viruses which cause respiratory infections
Eva Lenz, Christin Müller, Ahmed Mostafa, Julia Dzieciolowski, Pumaree Kanrai, Sharmistha Dam, Ute Cwientzek, Lars-Norbert Prenner, Stephan Pleschka
Journal of Herbal Medicine.2018; 13: 26. CrossRef
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Zhizeng Gao, Masahiro Niikura, Stephen G. Withers
Angewandte Chemie International Edition.2017; 56(22): 6112. CrossRef
Ultrasensitive Fluorogenic Reagents for Neuraminidase Titration
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Angewandte Chemie.2017; 129(22): 6208. CrossRef

Determinants of the Length of Stay in Stroke Patients: Sang Mi Kim, Sung Wan Hwang, Eun-Hwan Oh, Jung-Kyu Kang; Osong Public Health Res Perspect. 2013;4(6):329-341. Published online December 31, 2013; DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.phrp.2013.10.008

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Abstract PDF

Objectives
The study objective was to identify the factors that influence the length of stay (LOS) in hospital for stroke patients and to provide data for managing hospital costs by managing the LOS.
Methods
This study used data from the Discharge Injury Survey of the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which included 17,364 cases from 2005 to 2008.
Result
The LOS for stroke, cerebral infarction, intracerebral hemorrhage, and subarachnoid hemorrhage was 18.6, 15.0, 28.9, and 25.3 days, respectively. Patients who underwent surgery had longer LOS. When patients were divided based on whether they had surgery, there was a 2.4-time difference in the LOS for patients with subarachnoid hemorrhage, 2.0-time difference for patients with cerebral infarction, and 1.4-time difference for patients with intracerebral hemorrhage. The emergency route of admission and other diagnosis increased LOS, whereas hypertension and diabetic mellitus reduced LOS.
Conclusion
In the present rapidly changing hospital environments, hospitals approach an efficient policy for LOS, to maintain their revenues and quality of assessment. If LOS is used as the indicator of treatment expenses, there is a need to tackle factors that influence the LOS of stroke patients for each disease group who are divided based on whether surgery is performed or not for the proper management of the LOS.

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Nick M. Murray, Scott Marshall, Robert Hoesch, Kyle Hobbs, Shawn Smith, Dean Roller, Katherine Thomas, Kevin Meier, Adrian Puttgen
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Karan Patel, Kamil Taneja, Jared Wolfe, Joseph V. Campellone, Mudassir Farooqui, Santiago Ortega‐Gutierrez, James E. Siegler
Stroke: Vascular and Interventional Neurology.2023;[Epub] CrossRef
Can HRV Predict Prolonged Hospitalization and Favorable or Unfavorable Short-Term Outcome in Patients with Acute Ischemic Stroke?
Joanna Aftyka, Jacek Staszewski, Aleksander Dębiec, Aleksandra Pogoda-Wesołowska, Jan Żebrowski
Life.2023; 13(4): 856. CrossRef
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Lisda Amalia
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Teleneurocritical care is associated with equivalent billable charges to in-person neurocritical care for patients with acute stroke
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Journal of Telemedicine and Telecare.2023; : 1357633X2311661. CrossRef
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Steven Mulackal Thomas, Yarin Reindorp, Brandon R. Christophe, Edward Sander Connolly
World Neurosurgery.2022; 164: 41. CrossRef
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A. Aderonmu Joseph, O. Obembe Adebimpe
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Andjela Milojevic Samanovic, Dragan Milovanovic, Vladimir Gajic, Aleksandar Raskovic, Dragan Milojevic
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Maedeh Majidi Shad, Alia Saberi, Maryam Shakiba, Shademan Rezamasouleh
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Development of a Specific and Rapid Diagnostic Method for Detecting Influenza A (H1N1) pdm09 Virus Infection Using Immunochromatographic Assay: Mi Jung Ji, Byung Ki Cho, Young Shik Cho, Young Jin Choi, Donghyok Kwon, Kyeongcheol Shin, Joo-Yeon Lee, Chun Kang, Byoung Su Yoon; Osong Public Health Res Perspect. 2013;4(6):342-346. Published online December 31, 2013; DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.phrp.2013.10.006

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Abstract PDF

Objectives
The aim of this study was to develop an immunochromatographic assay (ICA) for the detection of influenza A (H1N1) pdm09 virus infection. Materials and methods Several monoclonal antibodies against influenza A (H1N1) pdm09 virus were generated and an ICA (pdm09-ICA) was developed for the rapid and specific detection of influenza A (H1N1) pdm09 virus infection. The specificity and sensitivity of the developed assay were compared with that of hemagglutination assay and real-time reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR).
Results
The detection limit was estimated to be 1/2 (8) hemagglutinating unit; the sensitivity and specificity rates of pdm09-ICA were 75.86% (110/145) and 100% (43/43), respectively, compared with rRT-PCR. The cross-reactivity for 20 influenza viruses, including seasonal H1N1 viruses, was found to be negative except for the H1N1 virus (A/Swine/Korea/GC0503/2005).
Conclusion
These results indicate that the proposed method can be easily used for rapid and specific detection of the pdm09 infection. The assay developed in this study would be a useful tool for distinguishing the pdm09 infection from seasonal influenza A and B infections.

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Sensitive detection of influenza a virus based on a CdSe/CdS/ZnS quantum dot-linked rapid fluorescent immunochromatographic test
Anh Viet Thi Nguyen, Tung Duy Dao, Tien Thi Thuy Trinh, Du-Young Choi, Seung-Taek Yu, Hyun Park, Seon-Ju Yeo
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In Vitro Antibacterial Efficacy of 21 Indian Timber-Yielding Plants Against Multidrug-Resistant Bacteria Causing Urinary Tract Infection: Monali P. Mishra, Rabindra N. Padhy; Osong Public Health Res Perspect. 2013;4(6):347-357. Published online December 31, 2013; DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.phrp.2013.10.007

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Abstract PDF

Objectives
To screen methanolic leaf extracts of 21 timber-yielding plants for antibacterial activity against nine species of uropathogenic bacteria isolated from clinical samples of a hospital (Enterococcus faecalis, Staphylococcus aureus, Acinetobacter baumannii, Citrobacter freundii, Enterobacter aerogenes, Escherichia coli, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Proteus mirabilis, and Pseudomonas aeruginosa).
Methods
Bacterial strains were subjected to antibiotic sensitivity tests by the Kirby–Bauer's disc diffusion method. The antibacterial potentiality of leaf extracts was monitored by the agar-well diffusion method with multidrug-resistant (MDR) strains of nine uropathogens.
Results
Two Gram-positive isolates, E. faecalis and S. aureus, were resistant to 14 of the 18 antibiotics used. Gram-negative isolates A. baumannii, C. freundii, E. aerogenes, E. coli, K. pneumoniae, P. mirabilis, and P. aeruginosa were resistant to 10, 12, 9, 11, 11, 10, and 11 antibiotics, respectively, of the 14 antibiotics used. Methanolic leaf extracts of Anogeissus acuminata had the maximum zone of inhibition size—29 mm against S. aureus and 28 mm against E. faecalis and P. aeruginosa. Cassia tora had 29 mm as the zone of inhibition size for E. faecalis, E. aerogenes, and P. aeruginosa. Based on the minimum inhibitory concentration and minimum bactericidal concentration values, the most effective 10 plants against uropathogens could be arranged in decreasing order as follows: C. tora > A. acuminata > Schleichera oleosa > Pterocarpus santalinus > Eugenia jambolana > Bridelia retusa > Mimusops elengi > Stereospermum kunthianum > Tectona grandis > Anthocephalus cadamba. The following eight plants had moderate control capacity: Artocarpus heterophyllus, Azadirachta indica, Dalbergia latifolia, Eucalyptus citriodora, Gmelina arborea, Pongamia pinnata, Pterocarpus marsupium, and Shorea robusta. E. coli, followed by A. baumannii, C. freundii, E. aerogenes, P. mirabilis, and P. aeruginosa were controlled by higher amounts/levels of leaf extracts. Phytochemicals of all plants were qualitatively estimated.
Conclusions
A majority of timber-yielding plants studied had in vitro control capacity against MDR uropathogenic bacteria.

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Parul Kaushik, Priyanka Ahlawat, Kuldeep Singh, Raman Singh
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Aml O. Alhadad, Galal S. Salem, Suliman M. Hussein, Sarah M. Elshareef
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Adedoyin Adetutu Olasunkanmi, Olumide Samuel Fadahunsi, Peter Ifeoluwa Adegbola
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T.C.L. Maguipa, P.D. Mbougueng, H.M. Womeni
Journal of Agriculture and Food Research.2022; 8: 100293. CrossRef
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Forecasting the Number of Human Immunodeficiency Virus Infections in the Korean Population Using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model: Hye-Kyung Yu, Na-Young Kim, Sung Soon Kim, Chaeshin Chu, Mee-Kyung Kee; Osong Public Health Res Perspect. 2013;4(6):358-362. Published online December 31, 2013; DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.phrp.2013.10.009

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Abstract PDF

Objectives
From the introduction of HIV into the Republic of Korea in 1985 through 2012, 9,410 HIV-infected Koreans have been identified. Since 2000, there has been a sharp increase in newly diagnosed HIV-infected Koreans. It is necessary to estimate the changes in HIV infection to plan budgets and to modify HIV/AIDS prevention policy. We constructed autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models to forecast the number of HIV infections from 2013 to 2017.
Methods
HIV infection data from 1985 to 2012 were used to fit ARIMA models. Akaike Information Criterion and Schwartz Bayesian Criterion statistics were used to evaluate the constructed models. Estimation was via the maximum likelihood method. To assess the validity of the proposed models, the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) between the number of observed and fitted HIV infections from 1985 to 2012 was calculated. Finally, the fitted ARIMA models were used to forecast the number of HIV infections from 2013 to 2017.
Results
The fitted number of HIV infections was calculated by optimum ARIMA (2,2,1) model from 1985–2012. The fitted number was similar to the observed number of HIV infections, with a MAPE of 13.7%. The forecasted number of new HIV infections in 2013 was 962 (95% confidence interval (CI): 889–1,036) and in 2017 was 1,111 (95% CI: 805–1,418). The forecasted cumulative number of HIV infections in 2013 was 10,372 (95% CI: 10,308–10,437) and in 2017 was14,724 (95% CI: 13,893–15,555) by ARIMA (1,2,3).
Conclusion
Based on the forecast of the number of newly diagnosed HIV infections and the current cumulative number of HIV infections, the cumulative number of HIV-infected Koreans in 2017 would reach about 15,000.

Citations

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