Skip Navigation
Skip to contents

PHRP : Osong Public Health and Research Perspectives


Author index

Page Path
HOME > Articles and issues > Author index
Zhifu Xie 1 Article
Data Fitting and Scenario Analysis of Vaccination in the 2014 Ebola Outbreak in Liberia
Zhifu Xie
Osong Public Health Res Perspect. 2019;10(3):187-201.   Published online June 30, 2019
  • 6,610 View
  • 189 Download
  • 7 Crossref
AbstractAbstract PDF

This study aimed to extend an epidemiological model (SEIHFR) to analyze epidemic trends, and evaluate intervention efficacy.


SEIHFR was modified to examine disease transmission dynamics after vaccination for the Ebola outbreak. Using existing data from Liberia, sensitivity analysis of various epidemic scenarios was used to inform the model structure, estimate the basic reproduction number ℜ0 and investigate how the vaccination could effectively change the course of the epidemic.


If a randomized mass vaccination strategy was adopted, vaccines would be administered prophylactically or as early as possible (depending on the availability of vaccines). An effective vaccination rate threshold for Liberia was estimated as 48.74% among susceptible individuals. If a ring vaccination strategy was adopted to control the spread of the Ebola virus, vaccines would be given to reduce the transmission rate improving the tracing rate of the contact persons of an infected individual.


The extended SEIHFR model predicted the total number of infected cases, number of deaths, number of recoveries, and duration of outbreaks among others with different levels of interventions such as vaccination rate. This model may be used to better understand the spread of Ebola and develop strategies that may achieve a disease-free state.


Citations to this article as recorded by  
  • A secure data fitting scheme based on CKKS homomorphic encryption for medical IoT
    Yunxuan Su, Xu An Wang, Weidong Du, Yu Ge, Kaiyang Zhao, Ming Lv
    Journal of High Speed Networks.2023; 29(1): 41.     CrossRef
  • Risk-averse multi-stage stochastic programming to optimizing vaccine allocation and treatment logistics for effective epidemic response
    Xuecheng Yin, İ Esra Büyüktahtakın
    IISE Transactions on Healthcare Systems Engineerin.2022; 12(1): 52.     CrossRef
  • Model-based evaluation of the impact of prophylactic vaccination applied to Ebola epidemics in Sierra Leone and Democratic Republic of Congo
    Ravi Potluri, Amit Kumar, Valérie Oriol-mathieu, Thierry Van Effelterre, Laurent Metz, Hitesh Bhandari
    BMC Infectious Diseases.2022;[Epub]     CrossRef
  • A hybrid simulation model to study the impact of combined interventions on Ebola epidemic
    Peiyu Chen, Wenhui Fan, Xudong Guo, Constantinos Siettos
    PLOS ONE.2021; 16(7): e0254044.     CrossRef
  • Transmission dynamics of the COVID‐19 outbreak and effectiveness of government interventions: A data‐driven analysis
    Yaqing Fang, Yiting Nie, Marshare Penny
    Journal of Medical Virology.2020; 92(6): 645.     CrossRef
  • Impact of prophylactic vaccination strategies on Ebola virus transmission: A modeling analysis
    Ravi Potluri, Amit Kumar, Vikalp Maheshwari, Charlie Smith, Valerie Oriol Mathieu, Kerstin Luhn, Benoit Callendret, Hitesh Bhandari, Malaya Kumar Sahoo
    PLOS ONE.2020; 15(4): e0230406.     CrossRef
  • Modeling the 2014–2015 Ebola Virus Disease Outbreaks in Sierra Leone, Guinea, and Liberia with Effect of High- and Low-risk Susceptible Individuals
    Qianying Lin, Salihu S. Musa, Shi Zhao, Daihai He
    Bulletin of Mathematical Biology.2020;[Epub]     CrossRef

PHRP : Osong Public Health and Research Perspectives