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Yasuhisa Saito 1 Article
Mathematical Modeling of Vibrio vulnificus Infection in Korea and the Influence of Global Warming
Chaeshin Chu, Younghae Do, Yongkuk Kim, Yasuhisa Saito, Sun-Dong Lee, Haemo Park, Jong-Koo Lee
Osong Public Health Res Perspect. 2011;2(1):51-58.   Published online June 30, 2011
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.phrp.2011.05.002
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  • 10 Citations
AbstractAbstract PDF
Objectives
To investigate the possible link between Vibrio vulnificus population size in seawater and water temperature.
Methods
We collected incidence and water temperature data in coastal regions of Korea and constructed a mathematical model that consisted of three classes; susceptible fish, infected fish available to humans, and infected humans.
Results
We developed a mathematical model to connect V. vulnificus incidence with water temperature using estimated bacterial population sizes and actual coastal water temperatures.
Conclusion
Increased V. vulnificus population sizes in marine environments may increase the risk of infection in people who eat at coastal restaurants in Korea. Furthermore, we estimated the near-future number of infected patients using our model, which will help to establish a public-health policy to reduce the disease burden.

Citations

Citations to this article as recorded by  
  • Impact of the future coastal water temperature scenarios on the risk of potential growth of pathogenic Vibrio marine bacteria
    Habiba Ferchichi, André St-Hilaire, Taha B.M.J. Ouarda, Benoît Lévesque
    Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science.2021; 250: 107094.     CrossRef
  • Effect of Seawater Temperature Increase on the Occurrence of Coastal Vibrio vulnificus Cases: Korean National Surveillance Data from 2003 to 2016
    Jungsook Kim, Byung Chul Chun
    International Journal of Environmental Research an.2021; 18(9): 4439.     CrossRef
  • Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Vibrio spp. within the Sydney Harbour Estuary
    Nachshon Siboni, Varunan Balaraju, Richard Carney, Maurizio Labbate, Justin R. Seymour
    Frontiers in Microbiology.2016;[Epub]     CrossRef
  • Genotypic Diversity and Population Structure of Vibrio vulnificus Strains Isolated in Taiwan and Korea as Determined by Multilocus Sequence Typing
    Hye-Jin Kim, Jae-Chang Cho, Paul J Planet
    PLOS ONE.2015; 10(11): e0142657.     CrossRef
  • From canonical to non-canonical cyclic nucleotides as second messengers: Pharmacological implications
    Roland Seifert, Erich H. Schneider, Heike Bähre
    Pharmacology & Therapeutics.2015; 148: 154.     CrossRef
  • Journal Publishing: Never Ending Saga
    Hae-Wol Cho, Chaeshin Chu
    Osong Public Health and Research Perspectives.2014; 5(1): 1.     CrossRef
  • Roll the Dice
    Hae-Wol Cho, Chaeshin Chu
    Osong Public Health and Research Perspectives.2014; 5(5): 243.     CrossRef
  • Summing Up Again
    Hae-Wol Cho, Chaeshin Chu
    Osong Public Health and Research Perspectives.2014; 5(4): 177.     CrossRef
  • Years of Epidemics (2009–2011): Pandemic Influenza and Foot-and-Mouth Disease Epidemic in Korea
    Hae-Wol Cho, Chaeshin Chu
    Osong Public Health and Research Perspectives.2013; 4(3): 125.     CrossRef
  • The Road Less Traveled
    Chaeshin Chu
    Osong Public Health and Research Perspectives.2011; 2(1): 1.     CrossRef

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