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Seyed Mohsen Zahraei 2 Articles
Alarm Thresholds for Pertussis Outbreaks in Iran: National Data Analysis
Yousef Alimohamadi, Seyed Mohsen Zahraei, Manoochehr Karami, Mehdi Yaseri, Mojtaba Lotfizad, Kourosh Holakouie-Naieni
Osong Public Health Res Perspect. 2020;11(5):309-318.   Published online October 22, 2020
  • 4,639 View
  • 57 Download
  • 1 Citations
AbstractAbstract PDF

The purpose of the current study was to determine the upper threshold number of cases for which pertussis infection would reach an outbreak level nationally in Iran.


Data on suspected cases of pertussis from the 25th February 2012 to the 23rd March 2018 from the Center for Disease Control and Prevention in Iran was used. The national upper threshold level was estimated using the exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) method and the Poisson regression method.


In total, 2,577 (33.6%) and 1,714 (22.3%) cases were reported in the Spring and Summer respectively. There were 1,417 (18.5%) and 1,971 (25.6%) cases reported in the Autumn and Winter, respectively. The overall upper threshold using the EWMA and the Poisson regression methods, was estimated as a daily occurrence of 8 (7.55) and 7.50 (4.48–11.06) suspected cases per 10,000,000 people, respectively. The daily seasonal thresholds estimated by the EWMA and the Poisson regression methods were 10, 7, 6, 8 cases and 10, 7, 7, 9 cases for the Spring, Summer, Autumn, and Winter, respectively.


The overall and seasonal estimated thresholds by the 2 methods were similar. Therefore, the estimated thresholds of 6–10 cases in a day, per 10,000,000 people could be used to detect pertussis outbreaks and epidemics by health policymakers.


Citations to this article as recorded by  
  • Immunogenicity and Safety of a Newly Developed Tetanus-Diphtheria Toxoid (Td) in Healthy Korean Adolescents: a Multi-center, Randomized, Double-blind, Active-Controlled Phase 3 Trial
    Ui Yoon Choi, Ki Hwan Kim, Jin Lee, Byung Wook Eun, Hwang Min Kim, Kyung-Yil Lee, Dong Ho Kim, Sang Hyuk Ma, Jina Lee, Jong-Hyun Kim
    Journal of Korean Medical Science.2021;[Epub]     CrossRef
Comparing Seasonal Pattern of Laboratory Confirmed Cases of Pertussis with Clinically Suspected Cases
Golam Reza Ghorbani, Seyed Mohsen Zahraei, Mahmood Moosazadeh, Mahdi Afshari, Fahimeh Doosti
Osong Public Health Res Perspect. 2016;7(2):131-137.   Published online April 30, 2016
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  • 18 Download
  • 10 Citations
AbstractAbstract PDF
During recent decades, there has been limited attention on the seasonal pattern of pertussis within a high vaccine coverage population. This study aimed to compare the seasonal patterns of clinical suspected pertussis cases with those of laboratory confirmed cases in Iran.
The current study was conducted using time series methods. Time variables included months and seasons during 2011–2013. The effects of seasons and months on the incidence of pertussis were estimated using analysis of variance or Kruskal–Wallis.
The maximum average incidence of clinically confirmed pertussis was 23.3 in July (p = 0.04), but the maximum incidence of clinical suspected pertussis was 115.7 in May (p = 0.6). The maximum seasonal incidences of confirmed and clinical pertussis cases were reported in summer (average: 12, p = 0.004), and winter (average: 108.1; p = 0.4), respectively.
The present study showed that the seasonal pattern of laboratory confirmed pertussis cases is highly definite and different from the pattern of clinical suspected cases.


Citations to this article as recorded by  
  • Bordetella pertussis in School-Age Children, Adolescents, and Adults: A Systematic Review of Epidemiology, Burden, and Mortality in the Middle East
    Denis Macina, Keith E. Evans
    Infectious Diseases and Therapy.2021; 10(2): 719.     CrossRef
  • Pertussis epidemiology and effect of vaccination among diagnosed children at Vietnam, 2015‐2018
    Nhung T. H. Pham, Nhan D. T. Le, Ngai K. Le, Khoa D. Nguyen, Mattias Larsson, Linus Olson, Dien M. Tran
    Acta Paediatrica.2020; 109(12): 2685.     CrossRef
  • Spatial distribution of vaccine-preventable diseases in central Iran in 2015–2018: A GIS-based study
    Abolfazl Mohammadbeigi, Abedin Saghafipour, Nahid Jesri, Fatemeh Zahra Tarkhan, Moharram Karami Jooshin
    Heliyon.2020; 6(9): e05102.     CrossRef
  • The comparative performance of wavelet‐based outbreak detector, exponential weighted moving average, and Poisson regression‐based methods in detection of pertussis outbreaks in Iranian infants: A simulation‐based study
    Yousef Alimohamadi, Seyed Mohsen Zahraei, Manoochehr Karami, Mehdi Yaseri, Mojtaba Lotfizad, Kourosh Holakouie‐Naieni
    Pediatric Pulmonology.2020; 55(12): 3497.     CrossRef
  • Alarm Thresholds for Pertussis Outbreaks in Iran: National Data Analysis
    Yousef Alimohamadi, Seyed Mohsen Zahraei, Manoochehr Karami, Mehdi Yaseri, Mojtaba Lotfizad, Kourosh Holakouie-Naieni
    Osong Public Health and Research Perspectives.2020; 11(5): 309.     CrossRef
  • The burden of laboratory-confirmed pertussis in low- and middle-income countries since the inception of the Expanded Programme on Immunisation (EPI) in 1974: a systematic review and meta-analysis
    Rudzani Muloiwa, Benjamin M. Kagina, Mark E. Engel, Gregory D. Hussey
    BMC Medicine.2020;[Epub]     CrossRef
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    Johannes Bogner
    MMW - Fortschritte der Medizin.2019; 161(12): 39.     CrossRef
  • Estimating seasonal variation in Australian pertussis notifications from 1991 to 2016: evidence of spring to summer peaks
    R. N. F. Leong, J. G. Wood, R. M. Turner, A. T. Newall
    Epidemiology and Infection.2019;[Epub]     CrossRef
  • Time series modeling of pertussis incidence in China from 2004 to 2018 with a novel wavelet based SARIMA-NAR hybrid model
    Yongbin Wang, Chunjie Xu, Zhende Wang, Shengkui Zhang, Ying Zhu, Juxiang Yuan, Lei Lin
    PLOS ONE.2018; 13(12): e0208404.     CrossRef
  • Identification of Etiologic Agents of the Pertussis-like Syndrome in Children by Real-time PCR Method
    Shima Mahmoudi, Maryam Banar, Babak Pourakbari, Hediyeh Sadat Alavi, Hamid Eshaghi, Alireza Aziz Ahari, Setareh Mamishi
    Prague Medical Report.2018; 119(1): 61.     CrossRef

PHRP : Osong Public Health and Research Perspectives