- Prediction Forecast for Culex tritaeniorhynchus Populations in Korea
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Nam-Hyun Kim, Wook-Gyo Lee, E-Hyun Shin, Jong Yul Roh, Hae-Chun Rhee, Mi Yeoun Park
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Osong Public Health Res Perspect. 2014;5(3):131-137. Published online June 30, 2014
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.phrp.2014.04.004
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 Abstract
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- Objectives
Japanese encephalitis is considered as a secondary legal infectious disease in Korea and is transmitted by mosquitoes in the summer season. The purpose of this study was to predict the ratio of Culex tritaeniorhynchus to all the species of mosquitoes present in the study regions.
Methods
From 1999 to 2012, black light traps were installed in 10 regions in Korea (Busan, Gyeonggi, Gangwon, Chungbuk, Chungnam, Jeonbuk, Jeonnam, Gyeongbuk, Gyeongnam, and Jeju) to capture mosquitoes for identification and classification under a dissecting microscope. The number of mosquitoes captured/week was used to calculate its daily occurrence (mosquitoes/trap/night). To predict the characteristics of the mosquito population, an autoregressive model of order p (AR(p)) was used to execute the out-of-sample prediction and the in-sample estimation after presumption.
Results
Compared with the out-of-sample method, the sample-weighted regression method's case was relatively superior for prediction, and this method predicted a decrease in the frequency of Cx. tritaeniorhynchus for 2013. However, the actual frequency of this species showed an increase in frequency. By contrast, the frequency rate of all the mosquitoes including Cx. tritaeniorhynchus gradually decreased.
Conclusion
The number of patients with Japanese encephalitis has been strongly associated with the occurrence and density of vector mosquitoes, and the importance of this infectious disease has been highlighted since 2010. The 2013 prediction indicated an increase after an initial decrease, although the ratio of the two mosquito species decreased. The increase in vector density may be due to changes in temperature and the environment. Thus, continuous prevalence prediction is warranted.
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Citations
Citations to this article as recorded by  - Spatiotemporal distribution, environmental correlation and health risk analysis of Culex tritaeniorhynchus (Diptera: Culicidae) in Beijing, China
Mei-DE. Liu, Qiu-Hong Li, Ting Liu, Xiu-Yan Xu, Junqi Ge, Tong-Yan Shen, Yun-BO. Wang, Xian-Feng Zhao, Xiao-Peng Zeng, Yong Zhang, Ying Tong
Heliyon.2024; 10(21): e39948. CrossRef - Joint spatiotemporal modelling reveals seasonally dynamic patterns of Japanese encephalitis vector abundance across India
Lydia H. V. Franklinos, David W. Redding, Tim C. D. Lucas, Rory Gibb, Ibrahim Abubakar, Kate E. Jones, Andrew S. Azman
PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases.2022; 16(2): e0010218. CrossRef - Vector competence of anthropophilic mosquitoes for a new mesonivirus in Senegal
Alioune Gaye, Moussa Moïse Diagne, El Hadji Ndiaye, Marie Henriette Dior Ndione, Martin Faye, Cheikh Talla, Gamou Fall, Yamar Ba, Diawo Diallo, Ibrahima Dia, Pascal Handschumacher, Ousmane Faye, Amadou Alpha Sall, Mawlouth Diallo
Emerging Microbes & Infections.2020; 9(1): 496. CrossRef - The mitochondrial genomes of Culex tritaeniorhynchus and Culex pipiens pallens (Diptera: Culicidae) and comparison analysis with two other Culex species
Qian-Chun Luo, You-Jin Hao, Fengxia Meng, Ting-Jing Li, Yi-Ran Ding, Ya-Qiong Hua, Bin Chen
Parasites & Vectors.2016;[Epub] CrossRef
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