- Sensitivity Analysis of the Parameters of Korea’s Pandemic Influenza Preparedness Plan
-
Chaeshin Chu, Junehawk Lee, Dong Hoon Choi, Seung-Ki Youn, Jong-Koo Lee
-
Osong Public Health Res Perspect. 2011;2(3):210-215. Published online December 31, 2011
-
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.phrp.2011.11.048
-
-
3,405
View
-
21
Download
-
10
Crossref
-
 Abstract
 PDF
- Objectives
Our aim was to evaluate Korea’s Pandemic Influenza Preparedness Plan.
Methods
We conducted a sensitivity analysis on the expected number of outpatients and hospital bed occupancy, with 1,000,000 parameter combinations, in a situation of pandemic influenza, using the mathematical simulation program InfluSim.
Results
Given the available resources in Korea, antiviral treatment and social distancing must be combined to reduce the number of outpatients and hospitalizations sufficiently; any single intervention is not enough. The antiviral stockpile of 4–6% is sufficient for the expected eligible number of cases to be treated. However, the eligible number assumed (30% for severe cases and 26% for extremely severe cases) is very low compared to the corresponding number in European countries, where up to 90% of the population are assumed to be eligible for antiviral treatment.
Conclusions
A combination of antiviral treatment and social distancing can mitigate a pandemic, but will only bring it under control for the most optimistic parameter combinations.
-
Citations
Citations to this article as recorded by  - Working memory capacity predicts individual differences in social-distancing compliance during the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States
Weizhen Xie, Stephen Campbell, Weiwei Zhang
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.2020; 117(30): 17667. CrossRef - Assessment of Intensive Vaccination and Antiviral Treatment in 2009 Influenza Pandemic in Korea
Chaeshin Chu, Sunmi Lee
Osong Public Health and Research Perspectives.2015; 6(1): 47. CrossRef - Doing Mathematics with Aftermath of Pandemic Influenza 2009
Hae-Wol Cho, Chaeshin Chu
Osong Public Health and Research Perspectives.2015; 6(1): 1. CrossRef - Roll the Dice
Hae-Wol Cho, Chaeshin Chu
Osong Public Health and Research Perspectives.2014; 5(5): 243. CrossRef - Journal Publishing: Never Ending Saga
Hae-Wol Cho, Chaeshin Chu
Osong Public Health and Research Perspectives.2014; 5(1): 1. CrossRef - Summing Up Again
Hae-Wol Cho, Chaeshin Chu
Osong Public Health and Research Perspectives.2014; 5(4): 177. CrossRef - Years of Epidemics (2009–2011): Pandemic Influenza and Foot-and-Mouth Disease Epidemic in Korea
Hae-Wol Cho, Chaeshin Chu
Osong Public Health and Research Perspectives.2013; 4(3): 125. CrossRef - Public Health Crisis Preparedness and Response in Korea
Hye-Young Lee, Mi-Na Oh, Yong-Shik Park, Chaeshin Chu, Tae-Jong Son
Osong Public Health and Research Perspectives.2013; 4(5): 278. CrossRef - Was the Mass Vaccination Effective During the Influenza Pandemic 2009–2010 in Korea?
Hae-Wol Cho, Chaeshin Chu
Osong Public Health and Research Perspectives.2013; 4(4): 177. CrossRef - How to Manage a Public Health Crisis and Bioterrorism in Korea
Hae-Wol Cho, Chaeshin Chu
Osong Public Health and Research Perspectives.2013; 4(5): 223. CrossRef
|
