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Dong Hoon Choi 1 Article
Sensitivity Analysis of the Parameters of Korea’s Pandemic Influenza Preparedness Plan
Chaeshin Chu, Junehawk Lee, Dong Hoon Choi, Seung-Ki Youn, Jong-Koo Lee
Osong Public Health Res Perspect. 2011;2(3):210-215.   Published online December 31, 2011
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.phrp.2011.11.048
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  • 10 Citations
AbstractAbstract PDF
Objectives
Our aim was to evaluate Korea’s Pandemic Influenza Preparedness Plan.
Methods
We conducted a sensitivity analysis on the expected number of outpatients and hospital bed occupancy, with 1,000,000 parameter combinations, in a situation of pandemic influenza, using the mathematical simulation program InfluSim.
Results
Given the available resources in Korea, antiviral treatment and social distancing must be combined to reduce the number of outpatients and hospitalizations sufficiently; any single intervention is not enough. The antiviral stockpile of 4–6% is sufficient for the expected eligible number of cases to be treated. However, the eligible number assumed (30% for severe cases and 26% for extremely severe cases) is very low compared to the corresponding number in European countries, where up to 90% of the population are assumed to be eligible for antiviral treatment.
Conclusions
A combination of antiviral treatment and social distancing can mitigate a pandemic, but will only bring it under control for the most optimistic parameter combinations.

Citations

Citations to this article as recorded by  
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    Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.2020; 117(30): 17667.     CrossRef
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  • Years of Epidemics (2009–2011): Pandemic Influenza and Foot-and-Mouth Disease Epidemic in Korea
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  • Was the Mass Vaccination Effective During the Influenza Pandemic 2009–2010 in Korea?
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  • How to Manage a Public Health Crisis and Bioterrorism in Korea
    Hae-Wol Cho, Chaeshin Chu
    Osong Public Health and Research Perspectives.2013; 4(5): 223.     CrossRef

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