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Chaeshin Chu 65 Articles
KCDC Risk Assessments on the Initial Phase of the COVID-19 Outbreak in Korea
Inho Kim, Jia Lee, Jihee Lee, Eensuk Shin, Chaeshin Chu, Seon Kui Lee
Osong Public Health Res Perspect. 2020;11(2):67-73.   Published online April 30, 2020
DOI: https://doi.org/10.24171/j.phrp.2020.11.2.02
  • 9,494 View
  • 589 Download
  • 15 Citations
AbstractAbstract PDF
Objectives

This study aims to evaluate the risk assessments of coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) in the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC), from the point of detection to the provision of basic information to the relevant public health authorities.

Methods

To estimate the overall risk of specific public health events, probability, and impact at the country-level were evaluated using available information. To determine the probability of particular public health events, the risk of importation and risk of transmission were taken into consideration. KCDC used 5 levels (“very low,” “low,” “moderate,” “high,” and “very high”) for each category and overall risk was eventually decided.

Results

A total of 8 risk assessments were performed on 8 separate occasions between January 8th to February 28th, 2020, depending on the detection and report of COVID-19 cases in other countries. The overall risk of the situation in each assessment increased in severity over this period: “low” (first), “moderate” (second), “high” (third), “high” (fourth), “high” (fifth), “high” (sixth), “high” (seventh), and “very high” (eighth).

Conclusion

The KCDC’s 8 risk assessments were utilized to activate national emergency response mechanisms and eventually prepare for the pandemic to ensure the containment and mitigation of COVID-19 with non-pharmaceutical public health measures.

Estimation of the Size of Dengue and Zika Infection Among Korean Travelers to Southeast Asia and Latin America, 2016–2017
Chaeshin Chu, Een Suk Shin
Osong Public Health Res Perspect. 2019;10(6):394-398.   Published online December 31, 2019
DOI: https://doi.org/10.24171/j.phrp.2019.10.6.10
  • 2,254 View
  • 52 Download
AbstractAbstract PDF
Objectives

To estimate the number and risk of imported infections resulting from people visiting Asian and Latin American countries.

Methods

The dataset of visitors to 5 Asian countries with dengue were analyzed for 2016 and 2017, and in the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam, imported cases of zika virus infection were also reported. For zika virus, a single imported case was reported from Brazil in 2016, and 2 imported cases reported from the Maldives in 2017. To understand the transmissibility in 5 Southeast Asian countries, the estimate of the force of infection, i.e., the hazard of infection per year and the average duration of travel has been extracted. Outbound travel numbers were retrieved from the World Tourism Organization, including business travelers.

Results

The incidence of imported dengue in 2016 was estimated at 7.46, 15.00, 2.14, 4.73 and 2.40 per 100,000 travelers visiting Philippines, Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia and Vietnam, respectively. Similarly, 2.55, 1.65, 1.53, 1.86 and 1.70 per 100,000 travelers in 2017, respectively. It was estimated that there were 60.1 infections (range: from 16.8 to 150.7 infections) with zika virus in Brazil, 2016, and 345.6 infections (range: from 85.4 to 425.5 infections) with zika virus in the Maldives, 2017.

Conclusion

This study emphasizes that dengue and zika virus infections are mild in their nature, and a substantial number of infections may go undetected. An appropriate risk assessment of zika virus infection must use the estimated total size of infections.

Watch Your Waistline
Hae-Wol Cho, Chaeshin Chu
Osong Public Health Res Perspect. 2018;9(2):43-44.   Published online April 30, 2018
DOI: https://doi.org/10.24171/j.phrp.2018.9.2.01
  • 2,105 View
  • 66 Download
PDF
A Joint Exercise against Intentional Biothreats
Hae-Wol Cho, Chaeshin Chu
Osong Public Health Res Perspect. 2018;9(1):1-2.   Published online December 31, 2017
DOI: https://doi.org/10.24171/j.phrp.2018.9.1.01
  • 3,094 View
  • 32 Download
PDF
Adolescents in Multi-Ethnic Families under Korean Ethnic Nationalism
Hae-Wol Cho, Chaeshin Chu
Osong Public Health Res Perspect. 2017;8(6):367-368.   Published online December 31, 2017
DOI: https://doi.org/10.24171/j.phrp.2017.8.6.01
  • 1,965 View
  • 32 Download
  • 1 Citations
PDF
Not One for All
Hae-Wol Cho, Chaeshin Chu
Osong Public Health Res Perspect. 2017;8(5):293-294.   Published online October 31, 2017
DOI: https://doi.org/10.24171/j.phrp.2017.8.5.01
  • 1,721 View
  • 14 Download
PDF
The Story of Korean Health Insurance System
Hae-Wol Cho, Chaeshin Chu
Osong Public Health Res Perspect. 2017;8(4):235-236.   Published online August 31, 2017
DOI: https://doi.org/10.24171/j.phrp.2017.8.4.01
  • 1,759 View
  • 23 Download
  • 2 Citations
PDF
To Be or Not to Be
Hae-Wol Cho, Chaeshin Chu
Osong Public Health Res Perspect. 2017;8(3):157-158.   Published online June 30, 2017
DOI: https://doi.org/10.24171/j.phrp.2017.8.3.01
  • 1,676 View
  • 16 Download
PDF
Depression among Middle-aged Persons
Hae-Wol Cho, Chaeshin Chu
Osong Public Health Res Perspect. 2017;8(2):105-107.   Published online April 30, 2017
DOI: https://doi.org/10.24171/j.phrp.2017.8.2.01
  • 1,902 View
  • 19 Download
PDF
What Matters in the Performance of a Medial Institution?
Hae-Wol Cho, Chaeshin Chu
Osong Public Health Res Perspect. 2017;8(1):1-2.   Published online February 28, 2017
DOI: https://doi.org/10.24171/j.phrp.2017.8.1.01
  • 1,713 View
  • 20 Download
PDF
What Affects Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease in Korea?
Hae-Wol Cho, Chaeshin Chu
Osong Public Health Res Perspect. 2016;7(6):339-340.   Published online December 31, 2016
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.phrp.2016.12.001
  • 1,266 View
  • 32 Download
PDF
Fallen Flowers
Hae-Wol Cho, Chaeshin Chu
Osong Public Health Res Perspect. 2016;7(5):279-280.   Published online October 31, 2016
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.phrp.2016.09.002
  • 1,458 View
  • 22 Download
PDF
A moment of truth
Hae-Wol Cho, Chaeshin Chu
Osong Public Health Res Perspect. 2016;7(4):211-212.   Published online August 31, 2016
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.phrp.2016.08.001
  • 1,358 View
  • 16 Download
PDF
What Would Be a Better Strategy for National University Hospital Management?
Hae-Wol Cho, Chaeshin Chu
Osong Public Health Res Perspect. 2016;7(3):139-140.   Published online June 30, 2016
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.phrp.2016.05.003
  • 1,422 View
  • 14 Download
PDF
Evaluation of Self-assessment in Cardiovascular Diseases Among Korean Older Population
Hae-Wol Cho, Chaeshin Chu
Osong Public Health Res Perspect. 2016;7(2):75-76.   Published online April 30, 2016
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.phrp.2016.03.001
  • 1,352 View
  • 19 Download
  • 4 Citations
PDF
A Disease Around the Corner
Hae-Wol Cho, Chaeshin Chu
Osong Public Health Res Perspect. 2016;7(1):1-2.   Published online February 28, 2016
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.phrp.2016.02.001
  • 1,329 View
  • 27 Download
  • 3 Citations
PDF
The Characteristics of Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus Transmission Dynamics in South Korea
Yunhwan Kim, Sunmi Lee, Chaeshin Chu, Seoyun Choe, Saeme Hong, Youngseo Shin
Osong Public Health Res Perspect. 2016;7(1):49-55.   Published online February 28, 2016
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.phrp.2016.01.001
  • 2,235 View
  • 24 Download
  • 55 Citations
AbstractAbstract PDF
Objectives
The outbreak of Middle Eastern respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) was one of the major events in South Korea in 2015. In particular, this study pays attention to formulating a mathematical model for MERS transmission dynamics and estimating transmission rates.
Methods
Incidence data of MERS-CoV from the government authority was analyzed for the first aim and a mathematical model was built and analyzed for the second aim of the study. A mathematical model for MERS-CoV transmission dynamics is used to estimate the transmission rates in two periods due to the implementation of intensive interventions.
Results
Using the estimates of the transmission rates, the basic reproduction number was estimated in two periods. Due to the superspreader, the basic reproduction number was very large in the first period; however, the basic reproduction number of the second period has reduced significantly after intensive interventions.
Conclusion
It turned out to be the intensive isolation and quarantine interventions that were the most critical factors that prevented the spread of the MERS outbreak. The results are expected to be useful to devise more efficient intervention strategies in the future.
Two Epidemics and Global Health Security Agenda
Hae-Wol Cho, Chaeshin Chu
Osong Public Health Res Perspect. 2015;6(6 Suppl):S1-S2.   Published online December 31, 2015
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.phrp.2015.12.008
  • 1,260 View
  • 22 Download
  • 2 Citations
PDF
To Be Imported or to Be Endemic? That is the Question
Hae-Wol Cho, Chaeshin Chu
Osong Public Health Res Perspect. 2015;6(6):327-328.   Published online December 31, 2015
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.phrp.2015.11.006
  • 1,331 View
  • 17 Download
PDF
Norovirus outbreaks occurred in different settings in the Republic of Korea
Hae-Wol Cho, Chaeshin Chu
Osong Public Health Res Perspect. 2015;6(5):281-282.   Published online October 31, 2015
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.phrp.2015.11.001
  • 1,470 View
  • 16 Download
  • 4 Citations
PDF
Discrimination and Stigma
Hae-Wol Cho, Chaeshin Chu
Osong Public Health Res Perspect. 2015;6(3):141-142.   Published online June 30, 2015
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.phrp.2015.06.004
  • 1,339 View
  • 16 Download
PDF
A Study on the Characteristics of Infrequent and Frequent Outpatients Visiting Korean Traditional Medical Facilities
Jinwon Yoon, Haemo Park, Chaeshin Chu, Sung-Yong Choi, Kibum Lee, Sundong Lee
Osong Public Health Res Perspect. 2015;6(3):170-183.   Published online June 30, 2015
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.phrp.2015.06.001
  • 1,379 View
  • 16 Download
  • 2 Citations
AbstractAbstract PDF
Objectives
This study was intended to analyze the characteristics of infrequent and frequent outpatients visiting Korean medical facilities, and find the related variables of frequent users.
Methods
The data source was the Report on the Usage and Consumption of Korean Medicine (2011) published by the Ministry of Health and Welfare and Korea Institute for Health and Social Affairs. We analyzed outpatient data using SAS 9.2.
Results
As much as 46.6% of the patients used Korean medical services over 11 times in 3 months. The proportion of frequent users increased depending on age, and their proportion was high in the low-income and low-education group. People with musculoskeletal disease, stroke, hypertension, and obesity were more likely to use Korean medical services. In general, patients were satisfied with their treatment, with frequent outpatients being more satisfied than infrequent outpatients. In logistic regression analysis, age and musculoskeletal disease were significant determinants of frequency of use of Korean medical services.
Conclusion
Age, musculoskeletal disease, and specific diseases were highly associated with frequent Korean medical utilization.
From Seoul to Lima: Korean Doctors in Peru
Hae-Wol Cho, Chaeshin Chu
Osong Public Health Res Perspect. 2015;6(2):71-72.   Published online April 30, 2015
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.phrp.2015.04.001
  • 1,302 View
  • 19 Download
PDF
Doing Mathematics with Aftermath of Pandemic Influenza 2009
Hae-Wol Cho, Chaeshin Chu
Osong Public Health Res Perspect. 2015;6(1):1-2.   Published online February 28, 2015
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.phrp.2015.01.001
  • 1,454 View
  • 23 Download
PDF
Assessment of Intensive Vaccination and Antiviral Treatment in 2009 Influenza Pandemic in Korea
Chaeshin Chu, Sunmi Lee
Osong Public Health Res Perspect. 2015;6(1):47-51.   Published online February 28, 2015
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.phrp.2014.11.007
  • 1,357 View
  • 15 Download
  • 2 Citations
AbstractAbstract PDF
Objectives
We characterized and assessed public health measures, including intensive vaccination and antiviral treatment, implemented during the 2009 influenza pandemic in the Republic of Korea.
Methods
A mathematical model for the 2009 influenza pandemic is formulated. The transmission rate, the vaccination rate, the antiviral treatment rate, and the hospitalized rate are estimated using the least-squares method for the 2009 data of the incidence curves of the infected, vaccinated, treated, and hospitalized.
Results
The cumulative number of infected cases has reduced significantly following the implementation of the intensive vaccination and antiviral treatment. In particular, the intensive vaccination was the most critical factor that prevented severe outbreak.
Conclusion
We have found that the total infected proportion would increase by approximately six times under the half of vaccination rates.
Is Tuberculosis Still the Number One Infectious Disease in Korea?
Hae-Wol Cho, Chaeshin Chu
Osong Public Health Res Perspect. 2014;5(Suppl):S1-S2.   Published online December 31, 2014
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.phrp.2014.11.003
  • 1,259 View
  • 18 Download
PDF
Trends and Characteristics of HIV Infection among Suspected Tuberculosis Cases in Public Health Centers in Korea: 2001–2013
Meekyung Kee, Kyoung-Ho Lee, Sae-Young Lee, Chun Kang, Chaeshin Chu
Osong Public Health Res Perspect. 2014;5(Suppl):S37-S42.   Published online December 31, 2014
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.phrp.2014.11.002
  • 1,519 View
  • 16 Download
  • 1 Citations
AbstractAbstract PDF
Objectives
The Republic of Korea reports approximately 35,000 new tuberculosis (TB) patients each year, and the number of HIV-infected individuals is steadily increasing. Public health centers (PHCs) conduct TB diagnosis and treatment for risk groups in communities. This study aimed to identify possible trends and characteristics of HIV infection among suspected TB cases in PHCs.
Methods
Study subjects were suspected TB cases in PHCs who agreed to be tested for HIV from 2001 to 2013. Trends in HIV seroprevalence were assessed through a series of annual cross-sectional analyses. We analyzed suspected TB cases, and HIV-infected individuals among suspected TB cases, by gender, age, nationality, and region.
Results
The number of suspected tuberculosis cases who took an HIV test in PHCs was approximately 6,000 each year from 2001 to 2013. Among the suspected TB cases who took an HIV test, the number of those aged 20–39 is gradually decreasing, while the number of those aged 50–69 is increasing. During this period, 32 HIV-infected individuals were identified; the majority were men (94%), aged 30–49 (68%), Korean (94%), and residents in a metropolitan area (53%). HIV seroprevalence decreased from 8.2 per 10,000 persons in 2001 to 1.9 per 10,000 persons in 2013.
Conclusion
This study has identified trends and characteristics of HIV infection among suspected tuberculosis cases in PHCs. This national data provides a basis for public health policy for HIV and tuberculosis infections.
Out of Africa, Into Global Health Security Agenda
Hae-Wol Cho, Chaeshin Chu
Osong Public Health Res Perspect. 2014;5(6):313-314.   Published online December 31, 2014
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.phrp.2014.11.004
  • 1,444 View
  • 23 Download
  • 4 Citations
PDF
Roll the Dice
Hae-Wol Cho, Chaeshin Chu
Osong Public Health Res Perspect. 2014;5(5):243-244.   Published online October 31, 2014
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.phrp.2014.09.001
  • 1,407 View
  • 18 Download
PDF
Summing Up Again
Hae-Wol Cho, Chaeshin Chu
Osong Public Health Res Perspect. 2014;5(4):177-178.   Published online August 31, 2014
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.phrp.2014.07.001
  • 1,399 View
  • 14 Download
PDF
A Period of Storm and Stress
Hae-Wol Cho, Chaeshin Chu
Osong Public Health Res Perspect. 2014;5(3):117-118.   Published online June 30, 2014
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.phrp.2014.05.001
  • 1,257 View
  • 29 Download
PDF
Sound in the Air
Hae-Wol Cho, Chaeshin Chu
Osong Public Health Res Perspect. 2014;5(2):75-76.   Published online April 30, 2014
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.phrp.2014.04.001
  • 1,374 View
  • 17 Download
PDF
A Study of High-Risk Drinking Patterns Among Generations Based on the 2009 Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey
Yeongseon Hong, Sungsoo Chun, Mieun Yun, Lydia Sarponmaa Asante, Chaeshin Chu
Osong Public Health Res Perspect. 2014;5(1):46-53.   Published online February 28, 2014
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.phrp.2014.01.006
  • 1,311 View
  • 15 Download
  • 1 Citations
AbstractAbstract PDF
Objectives
The aim of this study was to identify how the drinking patterns of a generation on the paternal side affect those of the next generations by estimating the number of high-risk drinkers by generation according to the Alcohol Use Disorder Identification Test.
Methods
Data were selected from the 2009 Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey conducted by the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and were analyzed using SPSS 18.0.
Results
Later generations started drinking earlier (62.4%, 71.8% and 91.1%, respectively). The majority of the second generation consumed more than 2–4 drinks a month (83.7%), but only a small proportion experienced difficulty in everyday life (9.6%), felt repentance (9.6%), or experienced memory loss (17.9%) after drinking. Unmarried third-generation adults with high-risk-drinking fathers reported more frequent alcohol consumption [odds ratio (OR) 1.441), greater amounts on one occasion (>7 cups for men, OR 1.661; > 5 cups for women, OR 2.078), temperance failure (OR 2.377), and repentance after drinking (OR 1.577). Unmarried third-generation adults with high-risk-drinking grandfathers consumed greater amounts of alcohol on one occasion (OR 3.642), and unmarried third-generation women more frequently consumed large amounts of alcohol (>5 cups, OR 4.091). Unmarried third-generation adults with high-risk-drinking fathers were more likely to exhibit high-risk drinking patterns (OR 1.608). Second-generation individuals from a high-risk-drinking first generation were more likely to engage in high-risk drinking (OR 3.705).
Conclusion
High-risk drinking by a generation significantly affects the high-risk drinking patterns of subsequent generations.
Journal Publishing: Never Ending Saga
Hae-Wol Cho, Chaeshin Chu
Osong Public Health Res Perspect. 2014;5(1):1-2.   Published online February 28, 2014
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.phrp.2014.01.005
  • 1,292 View
  • 18 Download
  • 1 Citations
PDF
Forecasting the Number of Human Immunodeficiency Virus Infections in the Korean Population Using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model
Hye-Kyung Yu, Na-Young Kim, Sung Soon Kim, Chaeshin Chu, Mee-Kyung Kee
Osong Public Health Res Perspect. 2013;4(6):358-362.   Published online December 31, 2013
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.phrp.2013.10.009
  • 1,447 View
  • 15 Download
  • 21 Citations
AbstractAbstract PDF
Objectives
From the introduction of HIV into the Republic of Korea in 1985 through 2012, 9,410 HIV-infected Koreans have been identified. Since 2000, there has been a sharp increase in newly diagnosed HIV-infected Koreans. It is necessary to estimate the changes in HIV infection to plan budgets and to modify HIV/AIDS prevention policy. We constructed autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models to forecast the number of HIV infections from 2013 to 2017.
Methods
HIV infection data from 1985 to 2012 were used to fit ARIMA models. Akaike Information Criterion and Schwartz Bayesian Criterion statistics were used to evaluate the constructed models. Estimation was via the maximum likelihood method. To assess the validity of the proposed models, the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) between the number of observed and fitted HIV infections from 1985 to 2012 was calculated. Finally, the fitted ARIMA models were used to forecast the number of HIV infections from 2013 to 2017.
Results
The fitted number of HIV infections was calculated by optimum ARIMA (2,2,1) model from 1985–2012. The fitted number was similar to the observed number of HIV infections, with a MAPE of 13.7%. The forecasted number of new HIV infections in 2013 was 962 (95% confidence interval (CI): 889–1,036) and in 2017 was 1,111 (95% CI: 805–1,418). The forecasted cumulative number of HIV infections in 2013 was 10,372 (95% CI: 10,308–10,437) and in 2017 was14,724 (95% CI: 13,893–15,555) by ARIMA (1,2,3).
Conclusion
Based on the forecast of the number of newly diagnosed HIV infections and the current cumulative number of HIV infections, the cumulative number of HIV-infected Koreans in 2017 would reach about 15,000.
What is Next for HIV/AIDS in Korea?
Hae-Wol Cho, Chaeshin Chu
Osong Public Health Res Perspect. 2013;4(6):291-292.   Published online December 31, 2013
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.phrp.2013.11.001
  • 1,261 View
  • 28 Download
PDF
How to Manage a Public Health Crisis and Bioterrorism in Korea
Hae-Wol Cho, Chaeshin Chu
Osong Public Health Res Perspect. 2013;4(5):223-224.   Published online October 31, 2013
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.phrp.2013.09.010
  • 1,356 View
  • 20 Download
  • 2 Citations
PDF
Introduction of the Republic of Korea–the United States of America's Joint Exercise Against Biothreats in 2013: Able Response 13
Seong Sun Kim, Dong Whan Oh, Hyun Jung Jo, Chaeshin Chu
Osong Public Health Res Perspect. 2013;4(5):285-290.   Published online October 31, 2013
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.phrp.2013.09.009
  • 1,492 View
  • 13 Download
  • 8 Citations
AbstractAbstract PDF
The Republic of Korea (ROK) and the the United States of America (USA) has held joint exercises to respond to biothreats in the Korean Peninsula since 2011. The exercise was called Able Response (AR) and it aims to coordinate interministerial procedures inside Korea and international procedures in requesting the medical resources urgently between ROK and USA, and among ROK and the United Nations, and nongovernmental organizations. AR13 was a functional exercise with a scenario that presumed a series of attack by terrorists, dispersing Bacillus anthracis in Seoul. The participants conducted exercises with action cells and using point-to-point communication system. It was followed by Senior Leadership Seminar participated by high-ranking officials in ROK and USA to discuss possible collaboration in advance. AR and its following actions will fortify collaboration between ROK and USA and enhance the capability of countermeasures against biothreats in Korea.
Public Health Crisis Preparedness and Response in Korea
Hye-Young Lee, Mi-Na Oh, Yong-Shik Park, Chaeshin Chu, Tae-Jong Son
Osong Public Health Res Perspect. 2013;4(5):278-284.   Published online October 31, 2013
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.phrp.2013.09.008
  • 1,523 View
  • 17 Download
  • 20 Citations
AbstractAbstract PDF
Since the 2006 Pandemic Influenza Preparedness and Response Plan according to the World Health Organization’s recommendation, the Republic of Korea has prepared and periodically evaluated the plan to respond to various public health crises including pandemic influenza. Korea has stockpiled 13,000,000 doses of antiviral drugs covering 26% of the Korean population and runs 519 isolated beds in 16 medical institutions. The division of public health crisis response in Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention are in charge of responding to public health crises caused by emerging infectious diseases including severe acute respiratory syndrome, avian influenza human infection, and pandemic influenza. Its job description includes preparing for emerging infectious diseases, securing medical resources during a crisis, activating the emergency response during the crisis, and fortification of capabilities of public health personnel. It could evolve into a comprehensive national agency to deal with public health crisis based on the experience of previous national emerging infectious diseases.
Epidemic Intelligence Service Officers and Field Epidemiology Training Program in Korea
Geun-Yong Kwon, Shinje Moon, Wooseok Kwak, Jin Gwack, Chaeshin Chu, Seung-Ki Youn
Osong Public Health Res Perspect. 2013;4(4):215-221.   Published online August 31, 2013
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.phrp.2013.07.001
  • 1,556 View
  • 19 Download
  • 9 Citations
AbstractAbstract PDF
Korea has adopted Epidemic Intelligence Service (EIS) officers through the Field Epidemiology Training Program (FETP) since 1999 for systematic control of emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases. Graduates of medical schools in Korea are selected and serve as public health doctors (PHDs) for their mandatory military service. The duration of service is 3 years and PHDs comprise general practitioners and specialists. Some PHDs are selected as EIS officers with 3 weeks basic FETP training and work for central and provincial public health authorities to conduct epidemiological investigations. The total number of EIS officers is 31 as of 2012. The Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC) has 12 specialists, whereas specialists and each province has one or two EIS officers to administer local epidemiological investigations in 253 public health centers. The Korean EIS officers have successfully responded and prevented infectious diseases, but there is a unique limitation: the number of PHDs in Korea is decreasing and PHDs are not allowed to stay outside Korea, which makes it difficult to cope with overseas infectious diseases. Furthermore, after 3 years service, they quit and their experiences are not accumulated. KCDC has hired full-time EIS officers since 2012 to overcome this limitation.
Was the Mass Vaccination Effective During the Influenza Pandemic 2009–2010 in Korea?
Hae-Wol Cho, Chaeshin Chu
Osong Public Health Res Perspect. 2013;4(4):177-178.   Published online August 31, 2013
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.phrp.2013.07.003
  • 1,538 View
  • 16 Download
  • 1 Citations
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Evaluation of the Effectiveness of Pandemic Influenza A(H1N1) 2009 Vaccine Based on an Outbreak Investigation During the 2010–2011 Season in Korean Military Camps
Kyo-Hyun Kim, Yoon Gu Choi, Hyun-Bae Yoon, Jung-Woo Lee, Hyun-Wook Kim, Chaeshin Chu, Young-Joon Park
Osong Public Health Res Perspect. 2013;4(4):209-214.   Published online August 31, 2013
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.phrp.2013.07.002
  • 1,461 View
  • 15 Download
  • 2 Citations
AbstractAbstract PDF
Objectives
In December 2010, there was an outbreak of acute febrile respiratory disease in many Korean military camps that were not geographically related. A laboratory analysis confirmed a number of these cases to be infected by the pandemic influenza A(H1N1) 2009 (H1N1pdm09) virus. Because mass vaccination against H1N1pdm09 was implemented at the infected military camps eleven months ago, the outbreak areas in which both vaccinated and nonvaccinated individuals were well mixed, gave us an opportunity to evaluate the effectiveness of H1N1pdm09 vaccine through a retrospective cohort study design.
Methods
A self-administered questionnaire was distributed to the three military camps in which the outbreak occurred for case detection, determination of vaccination status, and characterization of other risk factors. The overall response rate was 86.8% (395/455). Case was defined as fever (≥38 °C) with cough or sore throat, influenza-like illness (ILI), and vaccination status verified by vaccination registry. Crude vaccine effectiveness (VE) was calculated as “1 − attack rate in vaccinated individuals/attack rate in nonvaccinated individuals”, and adjusted VE was calculated as “1 – odds ratio” using logistic regression adjusted for potential confounding factor. A number of ILI definitions were used to test the robustness of the result.
Results
The attack rate of ILI was 12.8% in register-verified vaccinated individuals and 24.0% in nonvaccinated individuals. The crude VE was thus calculated to be 46.8% [95% confidence interval (CI): 14.5–66.9]. The adjusted VE rate was 46.8% (95% CI: –9.4 to 74.1). Various combinations of ILI symptoms also showed similar VE rates.
Conclusion
We evaluated the effectiveness of H1N1pdm09 vaccine in the 2010–2011 season in an outbreak setting. Although the result was not sensitive to any analytical method used and ILI case definition, the magnitude of effectiveness was lower than estimated in the 2009–2010 season.
Years of Epidemics (2009–2011): Pandemic Influenza and Foot-and-Mouth Disease Epidemic in Korea
Hae-Wol Cho, Chaeshin Chu
Osong Public Health Res Perspect. 2013;4(3):125-126.   Published online June 30, 2013
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.phrp.2013.05.001
  • 1,306 View
  • 19 Download
  • 1 Citations
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Fires in the Neighborhood
Hae-Wol Cho, Chaeshin Chu
Osong Public Health Res Perspect. 2013;4(2):67-67.   Published online April 30, 2013
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.phrp.2013.03.007
  • 1,412 View
  • 18 Download
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Are There Spatial and Temporal Correlations in the Incidence Distribution of Scrub Typhus in Korea?
Maengseok Noh, Youngjo Lee, Chaeshin Chu, Jin Gwack, Seung-Ki Youn, Sun Huh
Osong Public Health Res Perspect. 2013;4(1):39-44.   Published online February 28, 2013
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.phrp.2013.01.002
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  • 6 Citations
AbstractAbstract PDF
Objectives
A hierarchical generalized linear model (HGLM) was applied to estimate the transmission pattern of scrub typhus from 2001 to 2011 in the Republic of Korea, based on spatial and temporal correlation.
Methods
Based on the descriptive statistics of scrub typhus incidence from 2001 to 2011 reported to the Korean Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the spatial and temporal correlations were estimated by HGLM. Incidences according to age, sex, and year were also estimated by the best-fit model out of nine HGLMs. A disease map was drawn to view the annual regional spread of the disease.
Results
The total number of scrub typhus cases reported from 2001 to 2011 was 51,136: male, 18,628 (36.4%); female, 32,508 (63.6%). The best-fit model selected was a combination of the spatial model (Markov random-field model) and temporal model (first order autoregressive model) of scrub typhus transmission. The peak incidence was 28.80 per 100,000 persons in early October and the peak incidence was 40.17 per 100,000 persons in those aged 63.3 years old by the best-fit HGLM. The disease map showed the spread of disease from the southern central area to a nationwide area, excepting Gangwon-do (province), Gyeongsangbuk-do (province), and Seoul.
Conclusion
In the transmission of scrub typhus in Korea, there was a correlation to the incidence of adjacent areas, as well as that of the previous year. According to the disease map, we are unlikely to see any decrease in the incidence in the near future, unless ongoing aggressive measures to prevent the exposure to the vector, chigger mites, in rural areas, are put into place.
The Geographical and Economical Impact of Scrub Typus, the Fastest-growing Vector-borne Disease in Korea
Hae-Wol Cho, Chaeshin Chu
Osong Public Health Res Perspect. 2013;4(1):1-3.   Published online February 28, 2013
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.phrp.2013.01.001
  • 1,324 View
  • 21 Download
  • 2 Citations
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Spatial Distribution Analysis of Scrub Typhus in Korea
Hong Sung Jin, Chaeshin Chu, Dong Yeob Han
Osong Public Health Res Perspect. 2013;4(1):4-15.   Published online February 28, 2013
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.phrp.2012.12.007
  • 1,528 View
  • 20 Download
  • 12 Citations
AbstractAbstract PDF
Objective: This study analyzes the spatial distribution of scrub typhus in Korea.
Methods
A spatial distribution of Orientia tsutsugamushi occurrence using a geographic information system (GIS) is presented, and analyzed by means of spatial clustering and correlations.
Results
The provinces of Gangwon-do and Gyeongsangbuk-do show a low incidence throughout the year. Some districts have almost identical environmental conditions of scrub typhus incidence. The land use change of districts does not directly affect the incidence rate.
Conclusion
GIS analysis shows the spatial characteristics of scrub typhus. This research can be used to construct a spatial-temporal model to understand the epidemic tsutsugamushi.
A New Statistical Approach to Analyze Plasmodium vivax Malaria Endemic in Korea
Hae-Wol Cho, Chaeshin Chu
Osong Public Health Res Perspect. 2012;3(4):191-191.   Published online December 31, 2012
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.phrp.2012.11.004
  • 1,315 View
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Spatial and Temporal Distribution of Plasmodium vivax Malaria in Korea Estimated with a Hierarchical Generalized Linear Model
Maengseok Noh, Youngjo Lee, Seungyoung Oh, Chaeshin Chu, Jin Gwack, Seung-Ki Youn, Shin Hyeong Cho, Won Ja Lee, Sun Huh
Osong Public Health Res Perspect. 2012;3(4):192-198.   Published online December 31, 2012
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.phrp.2012.11.003
  • 1,654 View
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  • 10 Citations
AbstractAbstract PDF
Objectives
The spatial and temporal correlations were estimated to determine Plasmodium vivax malarial transmission pattern in Korea from 2001–2011 with the hierarchical generalized linear model.
Methods
Malaria cases reported to the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention from 2001 to 2011 were analyzed with descriptive statistics and the incidence was estimated according to age, sex, and year by the hierarchical generalized linear model. Spatial and temporal correlation was estimated and the best model was selected from nine models. Results were presented as diseases map according to age and sex.
Results
The incidence according to age was highest in the 20–25-year-old group (244.52 infections/100,000). Mean ages of infected males and females were 31.0 years and 45.3 years with incidences 7.8 infections/100,000 and 7.1 infections/100,000 after estimation. The mean month for infection was mid-July with incidence 10.4 infections/100,000. The best-fit model showed that there was a spatial and temporal correlation in the malarial transmission. Incidence was very low or negligible in areas distant from the demilitarized zone between Republic of Korea and Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (North Korea) if the 20–29-year-old male group was omitted in the diseases map.
Conclusion
Malarial transmission in a region in Korea was influenced by the incidence in adjacent regions in recent years. Since malaria in Korea mainly originates from mosquitoes from North Korea, there will be continuous decrease if there is no further outbreak in North Korea.
Basis for Korean Genome Study
Hae-Wol Cho, Chaeshin Chu
Osong Public Health Res Perspect. 2012;3(3):119-120.   Published online June 30, 2012
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.phrp.2012.07.011
  • 1,305 View
  • 25 Download
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Opening of the National Biobank of Korea as the Infrastructure of Future Biomedical Science in Korea
Sang Yun Cho, Eun Jung Hong, Jung Min Nam, Bogkee Han, Chaeshin Chu, Ok Park
Osong Public Health Res Perspect. 2012;3(3):177-184.   Published online June 30, 2012
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.phrp.2012.07.004
  • 1,512 View
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  • 24 Citations
AbstractAbstract PDF
On April 26, 2012, the Korea National Institute of Health officially held the opening ceremony of newly dedicated biobank building, ‘NationalBiobank of Korea’. The stocked biospecimens and related information have been distributed for medical and public health researches. The Korea Biobank Project, which was initiated in 2008, constructed the Korea Biobank Network consisting of the National Biobank of Korea (NBK) with 17 regional biobanks in Korea. As of December 2011, a total of 525,416 biospecimens with related information have been secured: 325,952 biospecimens from the general population obtained through cohort studies and 199,464 biospecimens of patients from regional biobanks. A large scale genomic study, Korea Association Resource (KARE) and many researches utilized the biospecimens secured through Korea Genome Epidemiology Study (KoGES) and Korea Biobank Project (KBP). Construction of ‘National Biobank of Korea’, a dedicated biobank building at Osong means that NBK can manage and check quality of the biospecimens with promising distribution of 26 million vials of biospecimen, which provide the infrastructure for the development of health technology in Korea. The NBK and the National Library of Medicine (to be constructed in 2014) will play a central role in future biomedical research in Korea.
Surveillance and Vector Control of Lymphatic Filariasis in the Republic of Korea
Shin Hyeong Cho, Da Won Ma, Bo Ra Koo, Hee Eun Shin, Wook Kyo Lee, Byong Suk Jeong, Chaeshin Chu, Won Ja Lee, Hyeng Il Cheun
Osong Public Health Res Perspect. 2012;3(3):145-150.   Published online June 30, 2012
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.phrp.2012.07.008
  • 1,493 View
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  • 6 Citations
AbstractAbstract PDF
Objectives
Until the early 2000s, lymphatic filariasis would commonly break out in the coastal areas in Korea. Through steady efforts combining investigation and treatment, filariasis was officially declared eradicated in 2008. This study surveyed the density of vector species of filariasis in past endemic areas, and inspected filariasis DNA from collected mosquitoes for protection against the reemergence of filariasis.
Methods
Between May and October 2009, mosquitoes were caught using the black night trap in past endemic coastal areas: Gyeongsangnam-do, Jeollanamdo, and Jeju-do. The collected mosquitoes were identified, and the extracted DNA from the collected vector mosquitoes was tested by polymerase chain reaction for Brugia malayi filariasis.
Results
Ochletotatus togoi, Anophel es (Hyrcanus) group and Culex pipiens were most frequently caught in Jeollanam-do (Geomun Island, Bogil Island, Heuksan Island), Jeju-do (Namone-ri, Wimi-ri). and Gyeongsangnam-do (Maemul Island). DNA of B malayi was not found in Och Togoi and An (Hyrcanus) group as main vectors of filariasis.
Conclusion
Lymphatic filariasis was not found in the vector mosquitoes collected in past endemic areas. However, considering that the proportion of vector species is quite high, there is a potential risk that filariasis could be reemerging through overseas travel or trade. Thus, there is a need to continuously monitor vector mosquitoes of lymphatic filariasis.
Optimal Control Strategy of Plasmodium vivax Malaria Transmission in Korea
Byul Nim Kim, Kyeongah Nah, Chaeshin Chu, Sang Uk Ryu, Yong Han Kang, Yongkuk Kim
Osong Public Health Res Perspect. 2012;3(3):128-136.   Published online June 30, 2012
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.phrp.2012.07.005
  • 1,485 View
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  • 10 Citations
AbstractAbstract PDF
Objective To investigate the optimal control strategy for Plasmodium vivax malaria transmission in Korea.
Methods
A Plasmodium vivax malaria transmission model with optimal control terms using a deterministic system of differential equations is presented, and analyzed mathematically and numerically.
Results
If the cost of reducing the reproduction rate of the mosquito population is more than that of prevention measures to minimize mosquito-human contacts, the control of mosquito-human contacts needs to be taken for a longer time, comparing the other situations. More knowledge about the actual effectiveness and costs of control intervention measures would give more realistic control strategies.
Conclusion
Mathematical model and numerical simulations suggest that the use of mosquito-reduction strategies is more effective than personal protection in some cases but not always.
Can Stigma Still Distort the Spectrum of a Disease?
Hae-Wol Cho, Chaeshin Chu
Osong Public Health Res Perspect. 2012;3(2):65-67.   Published online June 30, 2012
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.phrp.2012.04.009
  • 1,309 View
  • 23 Download
  • 1 Citations
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Human Diseases 101: Nature Versus Nurture
Hae-Wol Cho, Chaeshin Chu
Osong Public Health Res Perspect. 2012;3(1):1-2.   Published online December 31, 2011
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.phrp.2012.02.001
  • 1,323 View
  • 23 Download
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The Name of the Game
Hae-Wol Cho, Chaeshin Chu
Osong Public Health Res Perspect. 2011;2(Suppl 1):S1-S1.   Published online December 31, 2011
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.phrp.2011.11.035
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Sensitivity Analysis of the Parameters of Korea’s Pandemic Influenza Preparedness Plan
Chaeshin Chu, Junehawk Lee, Dong Hoon Choi, Seung-Ki Youn, Jong-Koo Lee
Osong Public Health Res Perspect. 2011;2(3):210-215.   Published online December 31, 2011
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.phrp.2011.11.048
  • 1,504 View
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  • 10 Citations
AbstractAbstract PDF
Objectives
Our aim was to evaluate Korea’s Pandemic Influenza Preparedness Plan.
Methods
We conducted a sensitivity analysis on the expected number of outpatients and hospital bed occupancy, with 1,000,000 parameter combinations, in a situation of pandemic influenza, using the mathematical simulation program InfluSim.
Results
Given the available resources in Korea, antiviral treatment and social distancing must be combined to reduce the number of outpatients and hospitalizations sufficiently; any single intervention is not enough. The antiviral stockpile of 4–6% is sufficient for the expected eligible number of cases to be treated. However, the eligible number assumed (30% for severe cases and 26% for extremely severe cases) is very low compared to the corresponding number in European countries, where up to 90% of the population are assumed to be eligible for antiviral treatment.
Conclusions
A combination of antiviral treatment and social distancing can mitigate a pandemic, but will only bring it under control for the most optimistic parameter combinations.
Is the Public Transportation System Safe from a Public Health Perspective?
Hae-Wol Cho, Chaeshin Chu
Osong Public Health Res Perspect. 2011;2(3):149-150.   Published online December 31, 2011
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.phrp.2011.11.037
  • 1,415 View
  • 22 Download
  • 1 Citations
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Estimation of HIV Seroprevalence in Colorectal Hospitals by Questionnaire Survey in Korea, 2002–2007
Mee-Kyung Kee, Do Yeon Hwang, Jong Kyun Lee, Seung Hyun Kim, Chaeshin Chu, Jin-Hee Lee, Sung Soon Kim
Osong Public Health Res Perspect. 2011;2(2):104-108.   Published online June 30, 2011
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.phrp.2011.08.002
  • 1,631 View
  • 15 Download
  • 4 Citations
AbstractAbstract PDF
Objectives
The incidence of anal disease is higher among persons with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection than among the general population. We surveyed the status of seroprevalence in colorectal hospitals in Korea.
Methods
The survey was conducted in colorectal hospitals in Korea from November to December 2008. The questionnaire was comprised of six topics about the status of HIV testing in colorectal hospitals. We gathered the data by website (http://hivqa.nih.go.kr/risk) or fax.
Results
Among 774 colorectal hospitals contacted, 109 (14%) hospitals participated in the survey. Among these, 48 hospitals (44%) performed HIV tests in their own hospitals and 11 (23%) took HIV testing by rapid method. The main reason for recommending an HIV test was surgical operation (54%) followed by endoscope (11%) and health checkup (9%). The annual number of HIV tests increased from 58,647 (at 21 hospitals) in 2002 to 246,709 (at 58 hospitals) in 2007. HIV seroprevalence was >3.0 per 10,000 individuals during 2002–2005, decreased to 2.2 per 10,000 individuals in 2006 and rose to 2.8 per 10,000 individuals in 2007.
Conclusions
HIV seroprevalence of colorectal hospitals was more than twice that of general hospitals in Korea. HIV surveillance systems based on colorectal hospitals for HIV/AIDS transmission prevention by early HIV diagnosis are needed.
A Tale of Two Fields: Mathematical and Statistical Modeling of Infectious Diseases
Hae-Wol Cho, Chaeshin Chu
Osong Public Health Res Perspect. 2011;2(2):73-74.   Published online June 30, 2011
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.phrp.2011.08.005
  • 1,318 View
  • 17 Download
  • 3 Citations
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A Note on Obesity as Epidemic in Korea
Mun Seok Kim, Chaeshin Chu, Yongkuk Kim
Osong Public Health Res Perspect. 2011;2(2):135-140.   Published online June 30, 2011
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.phrp.2011.08.004
  • 1,414 View
  • 13 Download
  • 9 Citations
AbstractAbstract PDF
Objective To analyze the incidence of obesity in adults aged 19–59 years in Korea and predict its trend in the future.
Methods
We considered a two-compartmental deterministic mathematical model Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS), a system of difference equations, to predict the evolution of obesity in the population and to propose strategies to reduce its incidence.
Results
The prevention strategy on normal-weight individuals produced a greater improvement than that produced by treatment strategies.
Conclusions
Mathematical model sensitivity analysis suggests that obesity prevention strategies are more effective than obesity treatment strategies in controlling the increase of adult obesity in Korea.
Development of a Predictive Model for Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Using Genetic and Clinical Data
Juyoung Lee, Bhumsuk Keam, Eun Jung Jang, Mi Sun Park, Ji Young Lee, Dan Bi Kim, Chang-Hoon Lee, Tak Kim, Bermseok Oh, Heon Jin Park, Kyu-Bum Kwack, Chaeshin Chu, Hyung-Lae Kim
Osong Public Health Res Perspect. 2011;2(2):75-82.   Published online June 30, 2011
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.phrp.2011.07.005
  • 1,470 View
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  • 9 Citations
AbstractAbstract PDFSupplementary Material
Objectives
Recent genetic association studies have provided convincing evidence that several novel loci and single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) are associated with the risk of developing type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). The aims of this study were: 1) to develop a predictive model of T2DM using genetic and clinical data; and 2) to compare misclassification rates of different models.
Methods
We selected 212 individuals with newly diagnosed T2DM and 472 controls aged in their 60s from the Korean Genome and Epidemiology Study. A total of 499 known SNPs from 87 T2DM-related genes were genotyped using germline DNA. SNPs were analyzed for significant association with T2DM using various classification algorithms including Quest (Quick, Unbiased, Efficient, Statistical tree), Support Vector Machine, C4.5, logistic regression, and K-nearest neighbor.
Results
We tested these models using the complete Korean Genome and Epidemiology Study cohort (n = 10,038) and computed the T2DM misclassification rates for each model. Average misclassification rates ranged at 28.2–52.7%. The misclassification rates for the logistic and machine-learning algorithms were lower than the statistical tree algorithms. Using 1-to-1 matched data, the misclassification rate of the statistical tree QUEST algorithm using body mass index and SNP variables was the lowest, but overall the logistic regression performed best.
Conclusions
The K-nearest neighbor method exhibited more robust results than other algorithms. For clinical and genetic data, our “multistage adjustment” model outperformed other models in yielding lower rates of misclassification. To improve the performance of these models, further studies using warranted, strategies to estimate better classifiers for the quantification of SNPs need to be developed.
Seroprevalence of Hepatitis A and E Viruses Based on the Third Korea National Health and Nutrition Survey in Korea
Haesun Yun, Hyeok-Jin Lee, Doosung Cheon, Chaeshin Chu, Kyung Won Oh, Young Taek Kim, Youngmee Jee
Osong Public Health Res Perspect. 2011;2(1):46-50.   Published online June 30, 2011
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.phrp.2011.04.009
  • 1,424 View
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  • 7 Citations
AbstractAbstract PDF
Objectives
The purpose of this study was to investigate the seroprevalence of hepatitis A virus (HAV) and hepatitis E virus (HEV) in Korea during 2005.
Methods
Study subjects were selected from across Korea using a stratified multistage probability sampling design, and HAV and HEV seroprevalence was compared on the basis of sex, age, and residency. A total of 497 rural and urban people aged 10–99 years of age (mean ± SD age = 28.87 ± 17.63 years) were selected by two-stage cluster sampling and tested serologically for anti-HAV and anti-HEV IgG using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay.
Results
Among this population, the overall seroprevalence of HAV was 63.80% (55.21% aged in their 20s and 95.92% in their 30s, p < 0.01) and that of HEV was 9.40% (5.21% aged in their 20s and 7.14% in their 30s, p < 0.01). Seroprevalence also varied according to area of residence. HEV prevalence in rural areas was higher than that of urban regions based on the anti-HEV antibody, odds ratio 3.22 (95% confidence interval: 1.46–7.10, p < 0.01). There were no significant differences between male and female against anti-HAV/HEV antibodies.
Conclusion
Our study suggested that the seropositive rates of HAV and HEV might be related to age and environmental conditions.
The Road Less Traveled
Chaeshin Chu
Osong Public Health Res Perspect. 2011;2(1):1-2.   Published online June 30, 2011
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.phrp.2011.05.001
  • 1,373 View
  • 17 Download
  • 1 Citations
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Mathematical Modeling of Vibrio vulnificus Infection in Korea and the Influence of Global Warming
Chaeshin Chu, Younghae Do, Yongkuk Kim, Yasuhisa Saito, Sun-Dong Lee, Haemo Park, Jong-Koo Lee
Osong Public Health Res Perspect. 2011;2(1):51-58.   Published online June 30, 2011
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.phrp.2011.05.002
  • 1,478 View
  • 13 Download
  • 10 Citations
AbstractAbstract PDF
Objectives
To investigate the possible link between Vibrio vulnificus population size in seawater and water temperature.
Methods
We collected incidence and water temperature data in coastal regions of Korea and constructed a mathematical model that consisted of three classes; susceptible fish, infected fish available to humans, and infected humans.
Results
We developed a mathematical model to connect V. vulnificus incidence with water temperature using estimated bacterial population sizes and actual coastal water temperatures.
Conclusion
Increased V. vulnificus population sizes in marine environments may increase the risk of infection in people who eat at coastal restaurants in Korea. Furthermore, we estimated the near-future number of infected patients using our model, which will help to establish a public-health policy to reduce the disease burden.

PHRP : Osong Public Health and Research Perspectives